think Greece and certainly Ireland have started to get their act together. France looks like it’s going in the
wrong direction. Germany is flatlining after coming out with roughly one percent GDP – that’s fallen off. I
think the single biggest factor right now that we are focused on is what is happening in Ukraine with
Russia.
That’s a major concern for the region. It certainly has some econ imps for the region. It probably has
more economic implications for Russia than it does for Europe, but it’s definitely a negative.
It will weigh on
the market. The fact that this is happening at this time of the year when it’s warm is probably a better thing
than if it was happening in the winter in the heating season where Europe is a large consumer of Russian
energy and natural gas. So I think if this becomes extended and isn’t worked out you may see further
weakness in Europe come the winter months.
13.
Macroeconomic Outlook: What is your view of the global pension crisis?
Anthony Scaramucci, Co-Managing Partner & Founder, SkyBridge Capital: The pension crisis is an
unmitigated disaster. It’s one of the things that we know is out there. It’s looming, and yet all of the
decisions that are necessary to correct it people really want to forestall.
The inaction is its own action, if
you will, toward exacerbating the crisis. I’m a big believer in looking around the world for best practices so
if you look at the 20 plus years ago what the Australians did with their superannuation it was absolutely
brilliant. They forced compulsory, all of the corps to have to divvy up a portion of the profits and put it in
these superannuation funds.
It is a country that is very well funded as a result of this compulsion. The
United States probably needs to do this. Other countries probably need to do this, but it is hard.
Because
what it does is have an impact on earnings. It could have a short-term impact on economic growth, and we
don’t like that. We are in a generation of people that we like to live above our means, we have our unders
and overs wrong in the United States right now.
We are over-fed, we are under-slept, we are over-worked,
we are under-saved, we are under-invested and we are over-consuming. When you get your overs and
unders wrong and you don’t want to make those longer term decisions to delay the gratification to get
those things right, and you have no political will, no political leadership to say, “ok, look, this is just what
we have to do to be better for the society,” you don’t have that sort of leadership in our country right now. I
think it’s an indictment of both parties.
I’m not here to pick on any one party; I’m here more to pick on what
I see is going on which is hurting the overall society.
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