x
Total Views  :   1218
Total Likes  :  0
Total Shares  :  0
Total Comments :  0
Total Downloads :  0

Add Comments
Presentation Slides

1) STRATEGY 101 | U.S. The Importance of Dividends CONTRIBUTORS Vinit Srivastava Senior Director Strategy Indices vinit.srivastava@spdji.com Jane Kim Associate Director Strategy Indices jane.kim@spdji.com The percentage of dividends as a part of personal income has steadily increased over time, making dividends an important source of income. Dividend income has climbed from 2.85% in 1981 to 5.89% in 2014, whereas interest income has declined from 13.5% to 8.6% over the same period (see Exhibit 1). Exhibit 1: Dividends and Interest as Percent of Personal Income 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Since 1956, dividends have accounted for approximately onethird of the total equity return of the S&P 500, with capital appreciation making up the other two-thirds. 2% 0% Dividend Income (Percent of Personal Income) Interest Income (Percent of Personal Income) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. National Income Product Accounts. Data as of Dec. 31, 2014. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes. Since 1956, dividends have accounted for approximately one-third of the total equity return of the S&P 500®, with capital appreciation making up the other two-thirds. Today, most market participants know that both sustainable dividend income and the potential for capital appreciation form total return expectations. Exhibits 2 and 3 illustrate the historical importance of dividends.

2) The Importance of Dividends October 2015 Exhibit 2: Percentage of Annualized Total Returns of the S&P 500 From Dividends Contribution of Dividends to Total Return of the S&P 500 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1940s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 1936-2014 Exhibit 3: Dividends and the Compounding Effect 10000.0 USD 2,648.69 1000.0 USD 132.19 100.0 USD Today, most market participants know that both sustainable dividend income and the potential for capital appreciation form total return expectations. 1950s Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of Aug. 31, 2015. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes and reflects hypothetical historical performance. Please see the Performance Disclosures at the end of this document for more information regarding the inherent limitations associated with back-tested performance. 10.0 1.0 0.1 S&P 500 (TR) S&P 500 Ratio Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of Aug. 31, 2015. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes and reflects hypothetical historical performance. Please see the Performance Disclosures at the end of this document for more information regarding the inherent limitations associated with back-tested performance. 2

3) The Importance of Dividends October 2015 INDEX DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION The S&P 500 High Dividend Index aims to provide exposure to the highest quintile of dividend-paying stocks in the S&P 500. The constituents of S&P 500 High Dividend Index must be members of the S&P 500 and have an indicated dividend yield as of the rebalancing reference date. The index ranks in descending order the indicated dividend yield and selects the top 80 equally weighted by 1/(n=80). The index is rebalanced semiannually in January and July. Exhibit 4: S&P 500 High Dividend Index Characteristics Number of Constituents 80 Weight Largest Constituents (%) 1.7 Weight Top 10 Constituents (%) 14.2 Constituent Market Cap (USD Million) Mean Total Market Cap 37,284.9 Largest Total Market Cap 254,631.9 Smallest Total Market Cap 4,008.1 Median Total Market Cap 17,434.0 Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of Aug. 31, 2015. Table is provided for illustrative purposes. In the large-cap U.S. equity space, we find that over the past 24 years, firms that have paid high dividends relative to their peers have outperformed the broader market. INDEX CHARACTERISTICS In the large-cap U.S. equity space, we find that over the past 24 years, firms that have paid high dividends relative to their peers have outperformed the broader market (see Exhibits 5 and 6). Such outperformance comes at a slightly higher volatility over the total time period and higher drawdowns. This can be expected, as there is no filter on the quality of the dividend payments, but only on the magnitude of the payments relative to the price (dividend yield). Exhibit 5: Comparing Wealth Curves 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 S&P 500 High Dividend Index (TR) S&P 500 (TR) Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of Aug. 31, 2015. Index performance based on total return in USD. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes and reflects hypothetical historical performance. Please see the Performance Disclosures at the end of this document for more information regarding the inherent limitations associated with back-tested performance. 3

4) The Importance of Dividends October 2015 Exhibit 6: Comparing Wealth Curves January 31, 1991 = 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 The yield of the S&P 500 High Dividend Index is on average 200-300 bps higher than the S&P 500. 0.4 S&P 500 High Dividend Index/S&P 500 Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of Aug. 31, 2015. Index performance based on total return in USD. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes and reflects hypothetical historical performance. Please see the Performance Disclosures at the end of this document for more information regarding the inherent limitations associated with back-tested performance. As could be expected, the yield of the S&P 500 High Dividend Index is on average 200-300 bps higher than the S&P 500 (see Exhibit 7). Exhibit 7: Risk/Return Profiles Annual Return (%) S&P 500 High Dividend Index (TR) S&P 500 (TR) Past 1 Year 0.25 0.48 Past 3 Years 14.30 14.31 Past 5 Years 15.46 15.87 Past 7 Years 10.34 8.69 Past 10 Years 21.84 17.71 5.11 5.80 Annual Volatility (%) Past 1 Year Past 3 Years 9.75 9.56 Past 5 Years 10.01 11.91 Past 7 Years 20.53 16.53 Past 10 Years 16.74 15.25 Past 1 Year 0.05 0.08 Past 3 Years 1.47 1.50 Past 5 Years 1.54 1.33 Past 7 Years 0.50 0.53 Past 10 Years 1.30 1.16 -7.31 -6.03 Past 5 Years -8.94 -16.26 Past 7 Years -52.38 -36.13 Past 10 Years -0.66 -0.51 Annualized Risk-Adjusted Return Maximum Drawdown (%) Past 3 Years Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of Aug. 31, 2015. Index performance based on total return in USD. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index, and index returns do not reflect expenses an investor would pay. Table is provided for illustrative purposes and reflects hypothetical historical performance. Please see the Performance Disclosures at the end of this document for more information regarding the inherent limitations associated with back-tested performance. 4

5) The Importance of Dividends October 2015 Exhibit 8: S&P 500 and S&P 500 High Dividend Index Historical Yield 14 12 S&P 500 High Dividend Index Dividend Yield 10 S&P 500 Dividend Yield 8 6 4 2 0 Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Monthly dividend yield data from Jan. 2, 2004, to Aug. 31, 2015. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes and reflects hypothetical historical performance. Please see the Performance Disclosures at the end of this document for more information regarding the inherent limitations associated with back-tested performance. In times when interest rates are low, investors tend to seek places where they can receive a higher yield for their investment. In times when interest rates are low, investors tend to seek places where they can receive a higher yield for their investment. Exhibit 8 shows that as of Aug. 31, 2015, the S&P 500 High Dividend Index delivered the highest yield, at 4.33%. The current low interest rate environment has made dividend investing a compelling strategy. Currently, the yield on the six-month U.S. Treasury Bill is the lowest among the instruments observed. Recently, equity- and dividend-based strategies have been offering higher yields compared with many traditional fixed income options that are available to income-seeking investors. Exhibit 9 compares the current yields on the short-term fixed income instruments with equities and a portfolio of highdividend-paying securities. Exhibit 9: Yield Comparison 5.00% 4.33% 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.20% 2.50% 2.14% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.23% 0.00% Six-Month U.S. Treasury Bill S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index S&P 500 High Dividend Index S&P 500 Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of Aug. 31, 2015. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes and reflects hypothetical historical performance. Please see the Performance Disclosures at the end of this document for more information regarding the inherent limitations associated with back-tested performance. 5

6) The Importance of Dividends October 2015 TURNOVER To reduce turnover, there is a 20% buffer rule based on the indicated dividend yield at each rebalancing. Exhibit 10 illustrates a one-way turnover, with an average turnover rate of about 37.4%. The highest turnover rates occurred during recessions, including from 1998 to 2001 and again from 2008 to 2011. The highest turnovers occurred during January and July, as these are the rebalancing dates. Exhibit 10: S&P 500 High Dividend Index Total Turnover Since the index is based on dividend yield, it is highly concentrated in the utilities and financials sectors. 70% Average = 37.4% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Annual turnover data from Feb. 1, 1991, to Aug. 31, 2015. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes and reflects hypothetical historical performance. Please see the Performance Disclosures at the end of this document for more information regarding the inherent limitations associated with back-tested performance. Since the index is based on dividend yield, it is highly concentrated in the utilities and financials sectors, which can be expected (see Exhibit 11). Despite the recession from 2008-2009, exposure to financials remained high during this period, as the sector had transitioned from diversified banks in the early 1990s to regional banks and specialized REITs. Sector exposure may affect the index when interest rates rise. Typically, when interest rates rise, defensive sectors such as utilities tend to be more heavily affected. 6

7) The Importance of Dividends October 2015 Exhibit 11: Sector Allocation of the S&P 500 High Dividend Index 100% 90% Utilities 80% Telecommunication Services Technology 70% Materials 60% 50% Information Technology Industrials 40% Health Care 30% 20% 10% 0% As we go from the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats (which employs a stringent dividend growth screen) to the S&P 500 High Dividend Index, which doesn’t employ a quality screen, yields and volatility get higher, as would be expected. Financials Energy Consumer Staples Consumer Discretionary Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data from Jan. 31, 1991, to Aug. 31, 2015. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes. Exhibit 12: Sector Allocation of the S&P 500 100.00% 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% Utilities Telecommunication Services Materials Information Technology Industrials 50.00% Health Care 40.00% Financials 30.00% Energy 20.00% Consumer Staples 10.00% 0.00% Consumer Discretionary Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data from Jan. 31, 1991, to Aug. 31, 2015. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes. 7

8) The Importance of Dividends October 2015 Since Jan. 31, 1991, sector exposures for the S&P 500 have remained relatively stable over time and through various economic cycles (see Exhibit 12). The index has consistently shown large concentrations in financials and information technology. This is in contrast with the S&P 500 High Dividend Index, for which sector exposures have changed more dynamically and have been heavily concentrated in financials and utilities. Since the S&P 500 does not have a dividend yield requirement, there is broader sector representation in comparison to the S&P 500 High Dividend Index. FUNDAMENTAL DATA COMPARISON The performance of high-yielding stocks in the S&P 500 High Dividend Index is further illustrated in Exhibits 13 and 14 in the breakdown of fundamentals. The biggest gap is evident in the price-to-cash-flow ratio, marking a difference of approximately 14% between the two indices. Large, highyielding U.S. stocks also have stronger earnings, as illustrated by the higher price-to-earnings ratios (P/E; trailing and forward) in comparison with its benchmark (see Exhibit 13). Since 2009, the P/E of the S&P 500 High Dividend Index has been on average 1.2 times higher than that of S&P 500. Furthermore, the constituents of the S&P 500 High Dividend Index tend to have higher cash flow, enabling them to pay out higher in comparison to the S&P 500 (see Exhibit 14). Exhibit 13: P/E Ratios 35.0000 30.0000 25.0000 P/E Trailing S&P 500 High Dividend Index 20.0000 15.0000 P/E Trailing S&P 500 10.0000 5.0000 0.0000 December 2009 March 2010 June 2010 September 2010 December 2010 March 2011 June 2011 September 2011 December 2011 March 2012 June 2012 September 2012 December 2012 March 2013 June 2013 September 2013 December 2013 March 2014 June 2014 September 2014 December 2014 March 2015 June 2015 Since 2009, the P/E of the S&P 500 High Dividend Index has been on average 1.2 times higher than that of S&P 500. Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes. 8

9) The Importance of Dividends October 2015 Exhibit 14: Price/Cash Flow Ratios 35.0000 30.0000 25.0000 Price/Cash Flow S&P 500 High Dividend Index 20.0000 15.0000 10.0000 Price/Cash Flow S&P 500 5.0000 April 2015 December 2014 April 2014 August 2014 August 2013 December 2013 April 2013 December 2012 April 2012 August 2012 August 2011 December 2011 April 2011 December 2010 April 2010 August 2010 0.0000 December 2009 The constituents of the S&P 500 High Dividend Index tend to have higher cash flow, enabling them to pay out higher in comparison to the S&P 500. Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes. COMPARISON OF S&P 500 HIGH DIVIDEND INDEX VERSUS OTHER S&P 500 DIVIDEND INDICES Exhibit 15 reflects the differences in the index construction of three different S&P ® 500-based dividend strategies: the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats , the S&P 500 Low Volatility High Dividend Index, and the S&P 500 High Dividend Index. As we go from the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats (which employs a stringent dividend growth screen) to the S&P 500 High Dividend Index (which doesn’t employ a quality screen), yields and volatility get higher, as would be expected. 9

10) The Importance of Dividends The S&P 500 High Dividend Index is more of a pure-yieldpursuit strategy, catered toward investors who are seeking current income. October 2015 Exhibit 15. S&P 500 Dividend Indices Comparison S&P 500 High Category Dividend S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats® Index Index S&P 500 S&P 500 Universe Securities with increased dividends Top 80% of every year for at least 25 years while Constituent highest-yielding meeting minimum float-adjusted Selection securities from market cap and liquidity requirements the S&P 500 selected from the S&P 500 Current Constituent Floating–80 Floating–52 (minimum 40) Number Equally Weighting Equally weighted weighted Sector Weight 30 30 Cap (%) Semiannual Reconstituted annually in January; Review (January and reweighted quarterly (April, July, Frequency July) October) 10-Year Annualized 21.84 10.17 Return (%) 10-Year Annualized 16.74 13.76 Risk (%) Current Yield 4.33 2.47 (%) Base Date Jan. 18, 1991 Dec. 31, 1989 S&P 500 Low Volatility High Dividend Index S&P 500 50 least-volatile names from the top 75 highestyielding securities from the S&P 500 Fixed–50 Historical annual dividend yield 25 Semiannual (January and July) 10.91 13.58 4.12 Jan. 31, 1990 Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of Aug. 31, 2015. Index performance based on total return in USD. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative purposes and reflects hypothetical historical performance. Please see the Performance Disclosures at the end of this document for more information regarding the inherent limitations associated with back-tested performance. CONCLUSION The S&P 500 High Dividend Index is more of a pure-yield-pursuit strategy, catered toward investors who are seeking current income. As we have seen, the index does exhibit slightly higher volatility than the benchmark S&P 500, but it has a current yield that is an average of 200-300 bps higher than that of the S&P 500. Income-seeking investors could employ this strategy in conjunction with other quintile-based S&P 500 factor strategies, based on their investment objective. LIKE WHAT YOU READ? Sign up to receive updates on a broad range of index-related topics and complimentary events. 10

11) The Importance of Dividends October 2015 PERFORMANCE DISCLOSURES The S&P 500 High Dividend Index was launched on September 21, 2015. The S&P 500 was launched on March 4, 1957. All information for an index prior to the launch date is back-tested. However, it should be noted that the historic calculations of an Economic Index may change from month to month based on revisions to the underlying economic data used in the calculation of the index. Complete index methodology details are available at www.spdji.com. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. S&P Dow Jones Indices defines various dates to assist our clients in providing transparency on their products. The First Value Date is the first day for which there is a calculated value (either live or back-tested) for a given index. The Base Date is the date at which the Index is set at a fixed value for calculation purposes. The Launch Date designates the date upon which the values of an index are first considered live: index values provided for any date or time period prior to the index’s Launch Date are considered back-tested. S&P Dow Jones Indices defines the Launch Date as the date by which the values of an index are known to have been released to the public, for example via the company’s public website or its datafeed to external parties. For Dow Jones-branded indicates introduced prior to May 31, 2013, the Launch Date (which prior to May 31, 2013, was termed “Date of introduction”) is set at a date upon which no further changes were permitted to be made to the index methodology, but that may have been prior to the Index’s public release date. Past performance of the Index is not an indication of future results. Prospective application of the methodology as well as revisions to economic data used to calculate the Index may not result in performance commensurate with the back-test returns shown. The back-test period does not necessarily correspond to the entire available history of the Index. Please refer to the methodology paper for the Index, available at www.spdji.com for more details about the index, including the manner in which it is rebalanced, the timing of such rebalancing, criteria for additions and deletions, as well as all index calculations. Another limitation of using back-tested information is that the back-tested calculation is prepared with the benefit of hindsight. Back-tested data reflect the application of the index methodology and selection of index constituents in hindsight. No hypothetical record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, there are numerous factors related to the equities, fixed income, or commodities markets in general which cannot be, and have not been accounted for in the preparation of the index information set forth, all of which can affect actual performance. The Index returns shown do not represent the results of actual trading of investable assets/securities. S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC maintains the Index and calculates the Index levels and performance shown or discussed, but does not manage actual assets. Index returns do not reflect payment of any sales charges or fees an investor may pay to purchase the securities underlying the Index or investment funds that are intended to track the performance of the Index. The imposition of these fees and charges would cause actual and back-tested performance of the securities/fund to be lower than the Index performance shown. As a simple example, if an index returned 10% on a US $100,000 investment for a 12-month period (or US $10,000) and an actual assetbased fee of 1.5% was imposed at the end of the period on the investment plus accrued interest (or US $1,650), the net return would be 8.35% (or US $8,350) for the year. Over a three year period, an annual 1.5% fee taken at year end with an assumed 10% return per year would result in a cumulative gross return of 33.10%, a total fee of US $5,375, and a cumulative net return of 27.2% (or US $27,200). 11

12) The Importance of Dividends October 2015 GENERAL DISCLAIMER ® © 2015 by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a part of McGraw Hill Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. Standard & Poor’s and ® S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”), a subsidiary of McGraw Hill Financial. ® Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (“Dow Jones”). Trademarks have been licensed to S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Redistribution, reproduction and/or photocopying in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission. This document does not constitute an offer of services in jurisdictions where S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones, S&P or their respective affiliates (collectively “S&P Dow Jones Indices”) do not have the necessary licenses. All information provided by S&P Dow Jones Indices is impersonal and not tailored to the needs of any person, entity or group of persons. S&P Dow Jones Indices receives compensation in connection with licensing its indices to third parties. Past performance of an index is not a guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Exposure to an asset class represented by an index is available through investable instruments based on that index. S&P Dow Jones Indices does not sponsor, endorse, sell, promote or manage any investment fund or other investment vehicle that is offered by third parties and that seeks to provide an investment return based on the performance of any index. S&P Dow Jones Indices makes no assurance that investment products based on the index will accurately track index performance or provide positive investment returns. S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC is not an investment advisor, and S&P Dow Jones Indices makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in any such investment fund or other investment vehicle. A decision to invest in any such investment fund or other investment vehicle should not be made in reliance on any of the statements set forth in this document. Prospective investors are advised to make an investment in any such fund or other vehicle only after carefully considering the risks associated with investing in such funds, as detailed in an offering memorandum or similar document that is prepared by or on behalf of the issuer of the investment fund or other vehicle. Inclusion of a security within an index is not a recommendation by S&P Dow Jones Indices to buy, sell, or hold such security, nor is it considered to be investment advice. These materials have been prepared solely for informational purposes based upon information generally available to the public and from sources believed to be reliable. No content contained in these materials (including index data, ratings, credit-related analyses and data, research, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse-engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P Dow Jones Indices and its third-party data providers and licensors (collectively “S&P Dow Jones Indices Parties”) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Dow Jones Indices Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content. The Content is provided on an “as is” basis. S&P DOW JONES INDICES PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Dow Jones Indices Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. S&P Dow Jones Indices keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P Dow Jones Indices may have information that is not available to other business units. S&P Dow Jones Indices has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. In addition, S&P Dow Jones Indices provides a wide range of services to, or relating to, many organizations, including issuers of securities, investment advisers, broker-dealers, investment banks, other financial institutions and financial intermediaries, and accordingly may receive fees or other economic benefits from those organizations, including organizations whose securities or services they may recommend, rate, include in model portfolios, evaluate or otherwise address. 12