FHFA Brief 14-02 Housing & Mortgage Policy Topics Conclusion The tendency of the first-time homebuyer share to decline as house price growth increases, as measured by the negative correlation between the change in first-time homebuyer share and house price growth, is evident in the aggregate correlation nationwide, as well as in the correlations across most states and in most years between 1996 and 2013. This provides evidence for the second hypothesis that increasing house prices may price some would-be firsttime homebuyers out of the market. Periods of declining house prices (i.e., increases in affordability), by contrast, apparently tend to induce relatively robust home purchasing volume by first-time homebuyers. Undoubtedly, additional research in this area is required. Future research could include further exploration of labor market outcomes such as employment and income, and household finance outcomes, such as student loan debt. First-Time Homebuyer Share and House Price Growth Page 8 .