1) October 2015
Commentary from Pacific Asset Management, the manager of the Pacific Funds SM Fixed Income Funds.
Breaking Up with ZIRP Is Hard to Do
The decision in September by the Federal Reserve (the Fed)
to not raise the federal funds (fed funds) target rate highlights
the challenges of U.S. monetary policy given weakening
global growth and financial markets. In this article we discuss
the Fed’s September decision, outlook for Fed policy, and
implications for capital markets.
The Global Central Bank
Citing the potential drag from global economic and financial
developments, the Fed maintained its Zero Interest Rate Policy
(ZIRP) at its meeting on September 17. In making this decision,
members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
noted the need to monitor “developments abroad” along
with concerns of inflation remaining below 2% as reasons for
inaction. The FOMC members also reduced their short-term
outlook for growth and inflation, implying that global factors
will continue to weigh on the U.S. economy (Table 1). The
FOMC members went further by revising downward the
potential path of rate hikes via the “dot plots” (Chart 1).
On average, the committee now sees a 1.125% fed funds
rate by year-end 2016, implying three hikes versus the four
forecasted prior to the September meeting.
Table 1: The Fed reduces its growth and inflation outlook
FOMC Median Forecast
2015
2016
2017
2018
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth (%)
Lower and Slower
Whether or not the Fed decides to raise the fed funds
target rate in 2015, forecasts for the pace of tightening
and terminal levels suggest lower and slower.
FOMC forecast of the fed funds target rate
was adjusted lower as global economic concerns
were factored in
FOMC members average fed funds rate forecast,
“the dot plots”
3.5
3.0
FOMC June Average
FOMC September Average
Market (Fed Funds Futures)
3.08
2.46
2.5
2.21
2.0
1.77
1.5
1.38
1.36
1.13
1.0
0.5
0.8
0.38 0.29
0.26
0
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: Federal Reserve, as of September 17, 2015.
Declining inflation and weak demand constrain
what a neutral fed funds target rate may be
14
12
Real Fed Funds Rate
10
September 2015
2.1
2.3
2.2
2.0
8
June 2015
1.9
2.5
2.3
N/A
Average
Real Fed
Funds Rate
‘80–’89
‘90–’99
‘99–’09
‘10–’15
5.34%
2.74%
0.71%
–1.47%
2006
2010
6
Unemployment Rate (%)
4
September 2015
5.0
4.8
4.8
4.8
2
June 2015
5.3
5.1
5.0
N/A
0
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Inflation (%)
September 2015
1.4
1.7
1.9
2.0
June 2015
1.3
1.8
2.0
N/A
Source: Federal Reserve, as of September 17, 2015.
10/15
W30757-15A
–2
–4
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2014
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, as of August 1, 2015.
No bank guarantee • Not a deposit • May lose value
Not FDIC/NCUA insured • Not insured by any federal government agency
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2) October 2015
Chart 1: Average fed funds forecasts from FOMC
members were reduced in September
FOMC members average fed funds rate forecast,
“the dot plots”
3.0
FOMC June Average
FOMC September Average
Market (Fed Funds Futures)
3.08
2.46
2.5
2.21
2.0
1.77
1.5
1.38
A De Facto Tightening?
1.36
1.13
1.0
0.5
In many ways, current market conditions suggest a tightening
has already occurred, without any action from the Fed. Lower
equity prices, wider credit spreads, shelving of new issuance,
and a strengthening U.S. dollar have all acted as a de facto
tightening of monetary conditions. The Fed has acknowledged
in its forward guidance the impacts of these tighter financial
conditions prior to the start of tightening.
0.8
0.38 0.29
0.26
0
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: Federal Reserve, as of September 17, 2015.
Fed Policy: Even Lower and Slower
The Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged highlights the
challenges faced by central bankers in exiting policies of
the post Great Recession environment. The U.S. economy
continues to grow at a below-trend pace, while increasing
global economic risks have weakened growth and inflation
outlooks. While Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen
continues to express in her forward guidance that a rate
hike before year-end 2015 is likely, the weakness in financial
markets may continue to provide reason for pause. In
contrast to historical periods coinciding with the start of
Fed tightening cycles, it can be easily argued that current
economic growth is weak.
Chart 2: Taylor rule continues to warrant a very low
fed funds target rate
14
Taylor Rule
Effective Fed Funds Rate
12
Chart 3: Financial stress has increased over the
past few months leading to a de facto tightening of
monetary conditions
St. Louis Federal Reserve Financial Stress Index
3.5
One common yardstick for the fed funds target rate is the
Taylor rule, which provides an estimate of a neutral rate based
on the output gap and current inflation. The Taylor rule
currently estimates a neutral target rate to be approximately
1–2% (Chart 2). When incorporating a risk premium due
to global growth concerns, the past few months have only
reinforced the limited path of policy tightening currently
available to the Fed.
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
–1.0
–2.0
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, as of September 30, 2015. The index
measures the degree of financial stress in the markets and is constructed
from 18 weekly data series: seven interest-rate series, six yield spreads,
and other indicators.
10
8
6
4
2
0
–2
–4
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, as of July 1, 2015.
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3) October 2015
Barclays U.S. High Yield Index OAS (Basis Points)
Chart 4: Wider credit spreads in high yield over the
past year have acted as a phantom rate hike for
leveraged borrowers
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
Nov-10
Jul-11
Mar-12
Nov-12
Jul-13
Mar-14
Nov-14
Jul-15
Source: Barclays, as of September 30, 2015.
Whether or not the Fed decides to raise the fed funds target rate
in fourth quarter 2015 or early 2016, we expect a continuing
environment of tepid U.S. growth, benign inflation, increasing
global economic risks, and tighter monetary conditions. The
shortfall in output and inflation will remain a defining feature of
the U.S. and global economic landscape. These conditions have
resulted in accommodative monetary policy for years beyond
investor expectations. Going forward, these conditions will
most likely result in a terminal, fed funds target rate of 1–2%,
rather than historical suggestions of 4%.
The reality is that the Fed is only one actor on a broader stage
determining U.S. Treasury yields and monetary conditions. Global
central bank policies, global risks, and a multitude of economic
factors are playing an important role in monetary conditions.
Treasury yields are currently among the highest of the G-10
(a group of large developed countries), driving capital flows and
weighing down yields of intermediate and longer-maturity bonds.
As former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke
recently commented on his blog at the Brookings Institution,
“ eal interest rates are determined by a wide range
R
of economic factors, including prospects for economic
growth–not the Fed.”
Our Bottom Line
The past few months have reinforced a few important themes
for us. First, global sovereign and U.S. Treasury yields may
remain low for a considerable period. Second, market volatility
should continue during the next several quarters as diverging
central bank policies and fundamentally driven growth and
sector risks increase. Third, poor liquidity conditions in
secondary markets will result in increasing distortions, which
should be advantageous to smaller asset managers who can
execute views. Lastly, and of particular importance for active
management, security selection is paramount in driving returns
during these stages as the business, credit, and monetary
policy cycles are more divergent. Opportunities should
be most available to those who have the ability to be truly
selective in portfolios.
Pacific Asset Management
October 2015
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4) October 2015
Barclays High Yield Index refers to the Barclays U.S. High-Yield Index, which covers the universe of fixed rate,
non-investment-grade debt.
Terminal level or terminal rate is the rate at which the Fed will end the next hiking cycle.
About Pacific Asset Management
Founded in 2007, Pacific Asset Management specializes in credit-oriented fixed-income strategies. Pacific Asset Management is
a division of Pacific Life Fund Advisors LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser and a wholly owned subsidiary of Pacific Life
Insurance Company (Pacific Life). As of September 30, 2015, Pacific Asset Management managed approximately $5.59 billion.
Assets managed by Pacific Asset Management include assets managed at Pacific Life by the investment professionals of Pacific
Asset Management.
This publication is provided by Pacific Funds. These views represent the opinions of Pacific Asset Management and are presented
for informational purposes only. These views should not be construed as investment advice, the offer or sale of any investment,
or to predict performance of any investment. All material is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy cannot
be guaranteed. The opinions expressed herein are based on current market conditions, are as of October 2015, and are subject to
change without notice.
All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Past performance does not guarantee future
results. Bank loan, corporate securities, and high-yield bonds involve risk of default on interest and principal payments or price
changes due to changes in credit quality of the borrower, among other risks.
You should carefully consider an investment’s goals, risks, charges, strategies, and expenses. This and other information
about Pacific Funds are in the prospectus and/or applicable summary prospectus available from your financial advisor
or by calling (800) 722-2333, option 2. Read the prospectus and/or summary prospectus carefully before investing.
Pacific Life Fund Advisors LLC (PLFA), a wholly owned subsidiary of Pacific Life Insurance Company, is the investment advisor to the Pacific Funds.
PLFA also does business under the name Pacific Asset Management and manages certain funds under that name.
Effective December 31, 2014, Pacific Life Funds and its family of mutual funds changed its name to Pacific Funds. In addition, individual funds were also
renamed. For more information, please visit www.PacificFunds.com.
Mutual funds are offered by Pacific Funds. Pacific Funds are distributed by Pacific Select Distributors, LLC (member FINRA & SIPC), a subsidiary
of Pacific Life Insurance Company (Newport Beach, CA), and are available through licensed third-party broker/dealers. Pacific Funds refers to
Pacific Funds Series Trust.
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Mailing address:
P.O. Box 9768, Providence, RI 02940-9768
(800) 722-2333, Option 2 • www.PacificFunds.com
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