1) Q2 2015 Fundraising Update Pension fund commitments to managed real estate vehicles
2) Strong commitment activity continues in 2015 Domestic public pensions have committed $24.4 billion to managed real estate vehicles thus far in 2015, a 46 percent increase over 2014 Commitments to real estate managers by U.S.-based public pensions through the first half of 2015 are up significantly over the same period in 2014, demonstrating institutional investors’ continued search for yield in this low interest rate environment. Per FPL Consulting’s proprietary database, pensions committed $24.4 billion to managed real estate vehicles through Q2, compared to $16.7 billion over the same period last year and $14.3 billion in H1 2013. The degree of the increase over 2014 is partially attributable to recent closes by several large opportunity funds, most notably Blackstone’s ~$15B BREP VIII which closed earlier this year. Investment Strategy and Vehicle Structure High-yield (i.e. value-add and opportunistic) strategies continue to be in favor with investors in 2015, making up 79 percent of commitment volume YTD. This emphasis on higher yielding strategies is at least partially driven by the fact that rising asset prices and competition for deals have made it more challenging for investors to meet target returns with core strategies. Instead, many are showing a greater willingness to take on higher levels of risk for the potential of higher returns. That said, it’s important to note that the degree of the weighting toward opportunistic strategies is partially driven by BREP VIII, as is the weighting to closed-end funds (see below). As with investment strategy, the landscape of commitments by vehicle type shifted in the first half. While closed-end commingled funds were popular in 2014, they have been even more so thus far in 2015, representing 59 percent of commitment dollars YTD in 2015, versus 47 percent in 2014. Commitments to real estate managers (thru Q2) Q1 24.4 $B Q2 14.3 8.4 16.7 8.4 5.9 2013 © 2015, FPL Consulting 12.0 8.2 2014 2015 Commitments by investment strategy % 37 33 28 29 34 38 2013 2014 54 25 Core Value-add 21 2015 YTD Opportunistic Commitments by vehicle type % 25 42 18 29 12 10 56 47 2013 Dedicated debt vehicles have accounted for 9 percent of commitment volume YTD, while 5 percent has gone to “other” funds (e.g. REIT securities, fund of funds, etc.). 12.4 2014 Closed-end commingled Open-end commingled 59 2015 YTD Separate account
3) Property Type Vehicles dedicated to a single property type have attracted 22 percent of commitment dollars so far in 2015, down from 41 percent in 2014 but in line with 2013. Multifamily has been the most common among these property-specific vehicles, driven by large separate account commitments to TGM and Camden, as well as actively marketed funds sponsored by Waterton, Covenant, Abacus, and others. “Other” (i.e. niche) property types including senior housing, student housing, storage facilities, medical offices, and others also garnered attention from investors. Breakdown of commitments by property type (among property-specific vehicles) 2015 YTD 2014 40 25 8 16 16 2 20 28 Multifamily Industrial Office % 34 12 Other Retail Geography Breakdown of commitments by geography % 8 12 6 8 14 37 23 56 2013 72 2014 North America Europe Global 56 2015 YTD Latin America The majority of commitment capital (56%) continues to flow to vehicles focused on North America. That said, broad mandated global strategies have attracted a much greater proportion of commitments in 2015—37 percent versus just 14 percent in full year 2014. This finding is again influenced by the recent closing of several large opportunity funds, but it will be interesting to see how investors’ preferences with respect to geography progresses through the remainder of the year. It is also worth noting that commitments to Europe and Asia focused vehicles have dropped materially over the past two years, from 20 percent (combined) in 2013 to just 8 percent YTD. Asia Average Commitment Size The average commitment size thus far in 2015 is $94 million, highly consistent with that of 2014. As one would expect, the average commitment to separate accounts is considerably higher at $164 million. It’s important to note that this metric includes both newly formed separate accounts (which tend to be larger commitments), as well as follow-on commitments to existing separate account vehicles (which are often smaller). © 2015, FPL Consulting Average commitment size (overall and by vehicle type) $mm Overall Closed-end funds Open-end funds Separate accounts 164 94 82 80
4) Manager Concentration The commercial real estate industry’s prominent players continue to attract a disproportionate share of commitment volume, underscoring the bifurcation between ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’. The top 5 firms (by aggregate fundraising dollars over the period) represent 40 percent of volume YTD, while the top 20 represent 68 percent. That said, it is important to keep in mind that these concentration metrics tend to decline over the course of the year. For reference, in Q1 of this year, the top 5 firms accounted for 48 percent of commitment dollars and the top 20 firms made up 81 percent of total commitments. Concentration of commitments % All others All others All others All others 48 32 48 Firms 11-20 Firms 11-20 Firms 6-10 18 15 13 Firms 6-10 13 Top 5 firms Top 5 firms 40 21 2014 2015 YTD Vertical Integration Commitments to vertically integrated managers (as % of total commitments) % 26 11 11 15 6 5 2014 2015 YTD Commingled funds JV/Separate accounts Contact For more information, please contact: Timothy Kessler Principal firstname.lastname@example.org © 2015, FPL Consulting Vertically integrated managers have received 11 percent of commitment dollars in 2015, compared to 26 percent through full-year 2014. It is worth noting, however, that this figure is considerably higher when limited to valueadd strategies—23 percent of capital committed to vehicles employing value-add strategies went to vertically integrated managers. This is more in line with full-year 2014, where 30% of value-add commitment dollars went to vehicles sponsored by vertically integrated managers.
5) FPL ADVISORY GROUP FERGUSON PARTNERS FPL ASSOCIATES FPL CONSULTING Executive Search Compensation Management Consulting Chairmen/ Chief Executive Officers/ Presidents Benchmarking Strategic Planning Program Design Organizational Design Contractual & Policy Arrangements Corporate Finance Board of Directors/Trustees Senior Management/ Corporate Infrastructure Ferguson Partners Surveys FPL Associates Succession Planning & Leadership Specialized Research FPL Consulting About FPL Advisory Group FPL Advisory Group (“FPL”) is a global professional services firm that specializes in providing executive search, compensation, and management consulting solutions to a select group of related industries. Our committed senior partners bring a wealth of expertise and category-specific knowledge to leaders across the real estate, hospitality and leisure, and healthcare sectors. FPL is comprised of three primary operating companies that work together to serve a common client base. Ferguson Partners Ltd. provides executive and director recruitment, succession planning, and board assessment services, FPL Associates provides compensation consulting services, and FPL Consulting provides a range of organizational, financial and strategic consulting services. FPL is headquartered in Chicago, with offices in New York, London, Hong Kong, San Francisco, Singapore, Tokyo, and Toronto. From Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, San Francisco, Singapore, Tokyo, and Toronto, we serve clients across the globe. Our Industry Practices FPL serves clients in a select group of related sectors: Real Estate Investment Managers, Public & Private Owners/Developers, Service Firms, Commercial Mortgage Investment/Finance, Residential Mortgage Investment/Finance, Homebuilders, Engineering/Construction/Infrastructure Hospitality & Leisure Lodging, Gaming Resorts & Casinos, Restaurants & Cafes, Sports & Recreation, Amusement Parks & Attractions Healthcare Healthcare Services Firms, Seniors Housing and Skilled Nursing Owners/Operators, Hospitals, Non-Profit, Faith-Based, Clinic Based, and For-Profit Healthcare Systems, Academic Medical Centers, Managed Care Companies, Healthcare Management Consulting, Business and Technology and Start-up Companies CHICAGO HONG KONG LONDON NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO SINGAPORE TOKYO TORONTO www.fpladvisorygroup.com The Ferguson Partners recruitment practice consists of five affiliated entities serving FPL’s clients around the world: Ferguson Partners Ltd. headquartered in Chicago with other locations in New York and San Francisco, Ferguson Partners Canada Co. in Toronto, Ferguson Partners Europe Ltd. headquartered in London with a Japan branch located in Tokyo, Ferguson Partners Hong Kong Ltd. in Hong Kong, and Ferguson Partners Singapore Pte. Ltd. in Singapore. Ferguson Partners Europe Ltd. is registered in England and Wales, No. 4232444, Registered Office: 100 New Bridge Street, London, EC4V 6JA. Ferguson Partners Singapore Pte. Ltd. is registered in Singapore, Business Registration No. (UEN) 201215619H, Employment Agency License No. 12S6233. FPL Associates L.P., the entity which provides consulting services to FPL’s clients, is headquartered in Chicago.