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The experts:
IT M&A outlook in 2016
1.
2.
Deal value in IT was up 47% year-on-year in 2015, as the industry continued its evolution.
But what constitutes a sound strategy in this fast-moving sector? What role do link-ups play,
and how can established players compete with rising start-ups? Toppan Vite, in partnership
with Mergermarket, asked three IT M&A experts for their thoughts on the year ahead.
MM
RC
Mergermarket: What has been the single biggest
shift in the IT industry in recent years, and how
have established players reacted to it?
You refer to the “IT industry,” and in that phrase
you see the single biggest shift. I don’t think
one can speak of an IT industry anymore. What
was once called the IT industry had a particular
business model, but the business models have
changed significantly due to the speed of change,
brought on by disruption, convergence, and so
on. Disruption in the industry has resulted in all these
companies and established players reassessing
business models, trying to find new revenue
streams, and essentially having to evolve and adapt
to very rapid changes.
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TJ
The main shift is that many high-profit-margin
products have been commoditized, for example
personal computers. And that process is now
beginning to convert sexy smartphones into
consumer commodities as well. The razor-thin
margins that result from commoditization have
reduced research and development budgets and
forced big companies to move to a-la-carte pricing
of technical support. That commoditization, the
squeeze on profits, and breaking out pricing for
services has fundamentally changed the IT space.
Big companies have consolidated, and since they
face stiff competition from Asian competitors,
they’re often forced to shut down domestic
manufacturing in order to convert to low cost Asian
contract manufacturing, leading many companies
3.
1. Robby Coelho (RC)
Partner
Webber Wentzel
2. Tom Jarvis (TJ)
Partner
Winston & Strawn
3. Andrew Bozzelli (AB)
Director
Livingstone
2) to compete on price. Patent and trademark
protection are two of the best ways to survive
in this market.
AB
MM
TJ
There have been several major shifts, as Robby
and Tom have mentioned, but in terms of M&A
activity, we are seeing a lot of deals focused
on data and risk specifically. Those two areas
cover a broad spectrum—the Internet of Things
(IoT), big data, security, analytics. Ultimately,
buyers—whether financial or strategic—are
highly acquisitive of companies that are helping
customers access, assess and make sense
of data, as well as manage risk using that data.
And of course, buyers are looking for the ability
to monetize that software in a scalable and
recurring manner.
We’ve seen a couple of huge IT deals recently,
with the Dell-EMC merger and HP splitting itself
into two entities. Are these deals part of a wider
trend in the traditional IT space?
IT has a long history of rapid evolution, and this
is just the newest phase. Megadeals like these
enable consolidation of support functions—
accounting, sales, human resources and so
on. Consolidation of highly scalable support
organizations reduces costs and enables delivery
of goods and services that are targeted at a
higher position in the value chain. Unless they can
move up the value chain, most companies face
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“
Buyers are
highly acquisitive
of companies that
are helping customers
access, assess and
make sense of data,
as well as manage risk
using that data.
”
Andrew Bozzelli, Livingstone
3) anticipate any significant changes in the M&A
environment and believe it will continue to be
a seller’s market. With that being said, if you are
an entrepreneur or middle-market fund and you are
thinking about exiting your business or investment
in the next two to three years, we strongly advise
you to consider accelerating those plans to capitalize
on this current environment.
unrelenting competition from Asian competitors.
Positioning on the value chain has everyone’s
attention right now.
RC
It may depend on the rationale for the deals.
What’s interesting with the Dell-EMC and HP deals
is that they arguably reflect different strategies.
Clearly, organizations have differing perspectives
on what the future looks like, and different
companies have different models for adapting.
So, Dell-EMC is more of a consolidation and
arguably the pairing of complementary products
and services, whereas HP is a split into different
hardware and software companies.
We’re certainly going to see a trend of a lot more
activity in the industry, but the underlying strategies
may be quite different among various players and
in different jurisdictions. In South Africa, for
instance, we’ve seen a lot of activity, but arguably
it has been influenced by a contrasting set of
factors. Perhaps a regulator has been slow to
liberalize the telecoms market and you see deals
being done where particular players are trying to
get access to facilities and frequency that others
may be sitting on. The rationale for the deals is
also influenced by local requirements where those
entities are operating.
AB
What’s relevant to us and our clients is how these
larger transactions impact the M&A appetite of
the broader industry. In the near term, we do not
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MM
What are the biggest challenges facing the
IT industry across the market at the moment?
AB
From a mid-market M&A perspective, the largest
challenges are navigating buyers and valuation
expectations. When I say buyers, I am talking
from a seller’s perspective, and that covers both
the proliferation of buyers and qualifying those
purchasers. In today’s mid-market environment,
business owners are getting contacted constantly
from financial buyers, whether it’s venture capitalists,
private equity firms, or family offices. The sheer
number of these buyers is increasing substantially.
In certain instances, they may get inbound interest
from a strategic, which often has a previous
business relationship with the firm.
Ultimately, it is critical for potential sellers to make
sense of this interest, qualify the approach, and
develop a sale process to maximize value and
ensure a successful close. With respect to valuation
expectations, the buyer community openly laments
the current M&A market for driving increased
4) competition and higher multiples. Buyers will also
say that a dichotomy exists between the number
of deals in the marketplace and pipeline, and
the quality of those deals. So it is important to
remember that not every deal is the same. If your
peers are trading at one multiple, that doesn’t
always mean that your business will also trade
at that multiple.
RC
From a legal perspective we are seeing more
regulation. You’re seeing increasing protection
of data and personal information, and those issues
are becoming ever more prominent. Moreover,
all these deals are happening in an industry that
is changing significantly and at a pace where the
laws aren’t keeping up. So they’re operating under
increased regulation on the one hand, and on
the other the industry is adapting and evolving in
areas where the laws don’t accommodate those
business models. A classic example of an uncertain
environment is on-demand businesses, where often
they operate in industries that only accommodate
a traditional business model rather than an online,
on-demand model. This ties in with challenges
regarding revenue streams as well.
The other challenge we’re seeing is the cannibalization
of businesses. Entities are becoming redundant
and have to evolve quickly to remain relevant, and
they’re facing issues in doing that. Increasingly,
you’re finding that the barriers to entry are lowering
quickly—the traditional larger entities are finding that
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5) underlying business model and rationale of the deal.
In some jurisdictions and regulatory regimes, that
is tied to union issues.
it’s easier for the smaller, more elastic companies
to move in very quickly, cost effectively, and
compete effectively. This is a challenge for
established players.
TJ
I would say the biggest challenge is probably the
squeeze on profitability, as Robby mentioned.
Highly profitable products are quickly commoditized
by competitors who deploy small design teams and
use low-cost Asian contract manufacturers to
deliver products with minimal investments. Costeffective internet marketing, coupled with the new
internet distribution channels such as Amazon,
can saturate the market with competing products
in a very short period of time. Constant innovation
by market leaders, coupled with effective IP
enforcement, are the best tools for preserving
profitability in these situations.
MM
Large is a relative term when it comes to IT deals,
but when you deal with transactions that are
multijurisdictional, there are inevitable challenges.
You often come across issues around antitrust and
competition law. There are also the challenges of
licensing restrictions and approvals—for instance,
obtaining telecoms licenses. Then you have the
traditional challenges of integrating people, and in
some cases of dealing with redundancies, as well
as restructuring the deals to accommodate the
AB
Since we work on IT deals worth less than US
$250mn in enterprise value, the buyer is often a
strategic with a proven integration plan for bolt-on
acquisitions. However, in addition to running a sale
process to maximize value and enhance certainty
to close, we also stress the value of finding the
right partner for the business going forward. That
generally means finding a buyer with a similar culture
or shared vision or strategy. Helping clients ensure
that the cultural fit is right during the process helps
to minimize hiccups post-close.
MM
How can IT companies compete with the new
wave of start-ups?
RC
Certainly what you can’t do is to ignore them.
What you will increasingly see is that you compete
by investing either in new technologies or new
opportunities. In some cases, there are good
prospects to acquire start-ups even if they’re
unlikely to move the needle or the business is very
What are the main challenges faced in large
IT deals?
RC
Also, in these large deals you have to consider
intellectual property (IP) rights—the integrity
of IP rights and the ability to exploit IP in different
jurisdictions. Since that often forms the basis of these
deals, assessing the integrity of those rights to the key
assets of the business is one of the big challenges.
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6) One of the issues for the large IT companies is that
they’re often burdened by internal bureaucracies—
policies, procedures, etc.—which delay decisionmaking or have a long decision-implementation
process. Start-ups, by contrast, move quickly and
adapt quite quickly. So it’s about looking at the model,
looking at the opportunities, and looking at acquisitions
of those startups and anticipating the areas they are
going into. But it’s also about adapting and changing
the way companies operate in approaching those
opportunities, and moving a lot quicker.
young. They can allow the buyer to expand or
provide complementary products and services for
the existing business model. I think what we’ll see
and what we’ve seen is this evolution of adapting
and evolving to anticipate the threat of these startups, and to avoid the disruption they bring.
“
AB
TJ
The global challenges
to profitability in
mature markets are very
apparent right now, but
I believe there will be a
new wave of products and
services that will usher
in a new wave of profits.
There’s good reason
to be optimistic.
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”
Tom Jarvis,
Winston
& Strawn
From an M&A perspective, doing a defensive
acquisition can be an option, as Robby said.
But we usually see acquisitions of competitors
succeed best when there is a growth strategy
driving the rationale. Taking the other side, exiting
to a strategic or finding a new financial partner
can aid in positioning against a newly funded
competitor. There is an abundance of strategic and
transaction alternatives available to most middlemarket companies.
Established US players can monitor new tech
companies, make strategic acquisitions and maintain
a position on the cutting edge of competition
using incredibly efficient Asian manufacturing
capacity. It’s really the combination of those three
forces—established major players with strategic
vision, acquiring new technology companies, then
leveraging low-cost Asian manufacturing that will
win the race in the IT industries.
7) MM
What do you think will happen in IT M&A in the
coming 12 months?
AB
As I mentioned earlier, we believe the IT M&A
environment for the middle market will remain robust
over the next 12 months. Activity should remain
strong in the areas of data and risk, and companies
that have a differentiated platform within those
verticals will continue to garner strong interest from
both strategic and financial buyers. In addition, we
believe the buyer universe will continue to be global.
We market nearly all of our clients to global buyers,
since international buyers can be an ideal exit
option—even for software companies that are sub$20 million in revenue.
RC
I think we’ll see more investments in new, disruptive
technologies, including acquisitions of start-ups
where appropriate. It depends on jurisdiction, of
course, but we’ll see more consolidation happening,
more acquisitions up and down the value and
supply chains, as well as more investment in
synergistic products and services. And importantly,
you’re going to see increasing opposition by
industry competitors and attempts to scupper
these deals, whether through regulators, antitrust
complaints and challenges, and possibly through
litigation related to IP rights.
TJ
The global challenges to profitability in mature
markets are very apparent right now, but I believe
there will be a new wave of products and services
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that will usher in a new wave of profits. There’s good
reason to be optimistic. IoT is a great example —
machines will talk to each other constantly and take
care of things that now consume human time and
energy. In the near future, something as simple as
your coffee maker could remember the number of
cycles it’s been used, know how many coffee filters
you last purchased at the supermarket, calculate
whether you need more filters, initiate a purchase,
and the supermarket will deliver it to your door. That’s
a mundane example, but it’s a breakthrough use of
technology to provide consumers with the freedom
to spend their time more productively and enjoyably
— just one of the thousands of new business models
on the horizon.
The development and rollout of 5G wireless
technology will also fuel a new wave of electronic
devices. Cost is going to be great and rollout has
to be very efficiently executed in order to capture
the return on investment. It’s a new technology,
so there was a huge R&D expense. Rollout is going
to be complex and expensive, and unless it’s done
correctly they won’t capture investment costs. But
5G will be a trend in IT deal-making for the next year.
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