Positive Momentum and Low Volatility - Eye on the market by Peter Greenberger – February 24, 2016

Raymond James Financial Services

Description

st each stock over the ten-year period into quartiles, ranging from the 1 quartile exhibiting the lowest level th of average annualized volatility to the 4 quartile exhibiting the highest level. FEBRUARY 24, 2016 Table 1 indicates that over this discrete period, the lower-volatility quartiles generated higher annualized and risk-adjusted returns, as measured by the Sharpe Ratio. Each company in the index will ultimately FLEETING OR own, have to stand on its TIMELESS? Table 1 demonstrating its capability of It is very tempting to get caught generating attractive earnings, strong up in the latest new idea or invest in the next “hot” industry, fundamentals, and competitiveness, but over the course of time but those that exhibited of this type of strategy will be short-lived the positive results lower st volatility (1 quartile) generated an as a new technology takes over. Research has demonstrated annualized total return of 10%, while that over longer periods of those that had the highest volatility time both momentum-based th (4 and low-volatility strategies can generate attractive results. quartile) generated an annualized total return of just overinvestors to take a thoughtful and patient EotM encourages 4%. While each company will have different approach that compliments the investment objectives, goals, Source: Morningstar and Raymond James.

The Sharpe Ratio is a variables that will drive it to have and risk tolerances, and those measure of a Fund’s reward per unit of risk. The higher the Sharpe either high or low volatility, for considers how momentum and/or ratio, the better the portfolio’s risk-adjusted performance. An index companies that strategies may affect his plan. low volatility are prone to deeper cannot be directly invested in. declines, higher returns will be necessary in order to remain Table 1 indicates that, over this discrete period, the lowerSO MANY CHOICES, WHAT TO DO relatively competitive with their lessvolatility quartiles generated higher annualized and riskvolatile peers.

This trend may persist in a similar manner over the course of would like to provide investors with a one-stop solution EotM time, but as most investors know, past performance is no indication of future results. adjusted returns, as measured by the Sharpe Ratio, generating that provides both the best characteristics of momentum an annualized total return of 10%, while those that had the investing coupled with low volatility characteristics. Fleeting or Timeless highest volatility (4th quartile) generated an annualized Unfortunately, a single solution may not be best, as the two It is very tempting to over 4%. While the latest new factorsinvest in the next “hot” industry, but over the total return of just get caught up in idiosyncratic idea or drive strategies traditionally take different skill sets to execute on a course of time the positive results of this type of strategy will be short-lived as a new technology takes volatility levels, those companies that are prone to deeper over. Research has demonstrated that over longer periods of time both momentum-based and low- repeatable basis.

Hope should consistent, sustainable and declines will have to generate higher than average returns to volatility strategies can generate attractive results. EotM encourages our investor to take a thoughtful andof ways that an investor can not be lost, as there are a variety patient approach, that marries well with investment objectives, goals, and risk tolerances, and consider remain relatively competitive with less-volatile peers. This allocate to both momentum and low-volatility strategies. how momentum and/or low volatility strategies may help augment his plans. trend may persist in a similar manner over the course of time, Regardless of the approach that an investor ultimately takes, but as most investors know, past So Many Choices, What To Do performance is no indication he should remain cognizant that there is no single one size fits of future results. all solution. EotM would like to provide investors with a one-stop solution that provides both the best characteristics of momentum investing coupled with low volatility characteristics.

Unfortunately, a single solution may not be best, as the two strategies traditionally take different skill sets to execute on a consistent, sustainable and repeatable basis. Hope should not be lost, as there are a variety of ways that an investor can allocate to both momentum and low-volatility strategies including, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and separately managed accounts. That being said, Mutual Fund Research & Marketing (“MFRM”) currently NOTE SIDE has several strategies on the Highly Recommended Funds List that historically have had lower levels of volatility relative to their peer groups and many commonly followed indexes.

This includes the The benefits of positive momentum exist outside of the world of finance, whether it is an album continuously topping the BlackRock Multi-Asset Income Fund, the Federated Strategic Value Dividend Fund, and the Western charts, a movie preserving its run of leading the box office, or a sports team maintaining a winning streak. Typically, the positive Asset Total Return Unconstrained Fund. While not on the Highly Recommended Funds List, MFRM momentum is coupled with the fact that the artist, actor, or athlete consistently performs at a high believes that the Nuveen Symphony Low Volatility and the SEI U.S.

Managed Volatility Funds also merit level, not high one day, low the next, and consideration. so on. This in turn has led to fans following musicians such as the Beatles for over 50 years, the Star Wars series nearly 40 years, and teams such as the Green Bay Packers and New York Yankees for even longer. Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of mutual funds and ETFs before investing.

The prospectus contains this and other information about mutual funds and ETFs. The prospectus is available by contacting the fund family and should be read carefully before investing. The views expressed in this newsletter are subject to change, and no forecasts can be guaranteed. Information contained in this report was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed.

Material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute recommendations, investment advice or an indication of trading intent. Investing always involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

There is no assurance these trends will continue. Raymond James & Associates, Inc. member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment products are not deposits, not FDIC/NCUA insured, not insured by any government agency, not back guaranteed, subject to risk and may lose value .