1) BULLSEYE
Highlights
Investor Behavior
D
ALBAR’S Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior
(QAIB) has been measuring the effects of investor
decisions to buy, sell and switch into and out of mutual funds
since 1984. The QAIB study revealed that over the long term,
the average asset allocation investor earned significantly less
than mutual funds with an asset allocation objective.
Annualized Returns
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
Average Asset
Allocation Investor1
10.9%
6.5%
5.0%
Morningstar Objective:
Asset Allocation
11.4%
8.6%
6.7%
DWA Balanced Strategy2
15.4%
14.0%
12.1%
Inflation
2.0%
2.8%
2.1%
Source: Dabar & Morningstar calculated by Arrow Investment Adviors, LLC. Performance displayed
represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. As of December 31, 2006.
Many investors wait for markets to rise, then pour cash into
mutual funds. After markets decline, a selling frenzy begins.
Tracking the dollars going into and out of mutual funds
against market performance proves the correlation: as markets
rise, cash flows swell; as markets decline, cash flows deflate.
Unfortunately, this investor behavior erodes returns on even
the best-performing fund.
extrapolating trends that run contrary to historical, long-term
averages and probabilities. Many wait until the market has
already gone up before they buy, then panic when the market
drops, selling when prices are low. This pattern—buying high
and selling low—shows up consistently in investor behavior
over long time periods.
What can help improve an investor’s return beyond the kinds
of results shown in the QAIB survey?
The most recent QAIB shows a gradual improvement in investor
behavior, but that alone is not sufficient. The investor needs to
commit, for the long term, to a portfolio mix and investment
process that gives them a chance to achieve their goals. Working
with a financial advisor is another way investors can remove
INVESTOR SENTIMENT DURING MARKET CYCLES
Market Peak (Risk)
Euphoria
Anxiety
Thrill
Denial
Excitement
Nothing influences the behavior of investors more than
their aversion to loss. The market cycle shown to the right
illustrates investor emotion during periods of expansion, peaks,
contractions and troughs. It shows how investor emotions build
towards a peak as the market goes up, then plummet under the
stress of prospective losses. These emotions, not logic, drive
investor decisions. During market swings, investors place too
much credence in recent market opinions and events, mistakenly
Fear
Desperation
Optimism
Panic
Optimism
Relief
Hope
Capitulation
Depression
Despondency
Market Trough (Opportunity)
Continues on back
2) emotions from the process, through a well-defined systematic
approach—such as technical analysis, fundamental analysis
or dollar cost averaging.
THE DISCIPLINED INVESTMENT PROCESS
The Arrow DWA Balanced Fund is an asset allocation fund
that provides broad diversification across sector, style,
international, fixed income, and alternative asset classes.
Its tactical approach reallocates portfolio segments, within
certain bands, to stay responsive to market conditions.
Over the long term, the financial markets have generally
followed an upward trend—with downward volatility along
the way. It is during the volatile periods that the investor
needs to turn panic into a buying opportunity. Fluctuations
in the stock market are to be expected. Investing when
prices are low brings the highest returns.
Our portfolio strategy does have a strict buy and sell
discipline which removes emotion from the investment
process. The systematic process is executed with technical
analysis. The Fund is intended for patient investors seeking
an investment vehicle for contributions at regular intervals,
in both up and down markets.
A disciplined investment process helps provide protection
through even the worst markets. According to the QAIB
study, the easiest way to achieve this discipline is with an
asset allocation fund.
The Fund is appropriate for the investor who takes advantage
of market drops as a buying opportunity—a commitment
which requires discipline, but which should ultimately be
rewarded.
The benefits of asset allocation funds, which usually have
exposure to a variety of asset classes, come from their design
and construction. These funds handle portfolio rebalancing
for investors, so they project a retention rate of 5.2 years,
indirectly limiting losses caused by fear-based selling.
Market drops provoke fear and anxiety among investors—
but ultimately, when the market recovers, it rewards those who
treated the drawdown as a buying opportunity. For example,
a drawdown occurred for the Fund between February 21 and
March 5, 2007, when its NAV dropped from 11.35 to 10.61, a
loss of 6.5%. Thirty-six days later, on April 10, the Fund had
climbed back up to an NAV of 11.32, recovering 6.69% from
the low point of March 5. On April 16 the Fund exceeded its
previous high, as its NAV reached 11.40.
An asset allocation fund can also serve as an investment
vehicle for contributions, at regular intervals, in up and down
markets. This turns market fluctuations into potential buying
opportunities, and, as more shares are bought at lower prices,
reduces the effects of market risk. This is an easy concept to
state, but it takes patience and discipline to stick with.
Performance displayed represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. The maximum sales charge for Ashares is 5.75%. A-share investors may be eligible for a reduction in sales charges. The Fund charges a fee of 1.00% on redemptions
of shares held less than 30 days. The Funds Annual Operating expense is 1.75%.
Notes:
1
The 2007 QAIB study was performed and obtained from an independent third party, DALBAR, Inc. DALBAR is not associated with Arrow Funds. The information herein is
believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.
2
The DWA Balanced Strategy reflects hypothetical or simulated performance figures and is not meant to represent actual performance results for the Arrow DWA Balanced
Fund. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profit is accompanied by possibility of loss. These figures reflect a simulated portfolio managed with
the DWA Balanced Strategy using actual & hypothetical performance data for various Exchanges Traded Funds (ETFs) based on DWA’s analysis. The simulated model was
constructed using their proprietary set of rules for the purchase and sale of ETFs for each underling strategy as outlined in the Arrow DWA Balanced Fund prospectus. There
can be no assurance that actual transactions would have given the same results, although the manager believes results of actual trades would have been very similar.
Performance results reflect the re-investment of dividends and other earnings. The performance results are net transaction costs and operating expenses associated with
the management of the DWA Balanced Strategy. The performance of the Hypothetical DWA Balanced Strategy was reduced by 200 bps annually.
Disclosure
An investor should consider the Fund’s investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing or sending money.This and other information about
Arrow Funds is contained in the fund’s prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-877-277-6933. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. Arrow
is distributed by Aquarius Fund Distributors, LLC member FINRA/ SIPC.
The Fund may invest in commodity related securities, which may be subject to greater volatility than investments in traditional securities.The Fund may invest
in international and emerging market securities, which may be subject to special risks including fluctuations in currency, government regulation, differences in
accounting standards and liquidity. The Fund may invest in small-cap securities, which may have special risks associated including wider variations in earnings
and business prospects than larger, more established companies. The Fund may invest in real estate related securities, which may be subject to mortgagerelated risks and real estate market fluctuations. The Fund may invest in ï¬xed income securities, which are subject to risks including interest rate, credit and
inflation.The Fund is nondiversiï¬ed as there are a limited number of underlying funds available and each holding has the potential for a greater impact on the
Fund’s return. However, the underlying funds have access to a large number of different investments providing the additional diversiï¬cation beneï¬ts discussed
in the prospectus. Diversiï¬cation does not assure a proï¬t or protect against loss in a declining market. The maximum sales charge for A-shares is 5.75%. Ashare investors may be eligible for a reduction in sales charges. The Fund charges a fee of 1.00% on redemptions of shares held less than 30 days.
0903-AFD-9/11/2007