1) Our Perspective
MUNI YIELD LIMBO: HOW LOW CAN YOU GO? – FEBRUARY 2016
Ronald Schwartz, CFA
Managing Director,
Senior Portfolio Manager,
Tax-Exempt
Ron is a Senior Portfolio
Manager focused on the TaxExempt Strategies. He has
worked in the investment
management industry since
1982. Ron received a B.A. in
Business Administration from
Adelphi University and is a CFA
Charterholder and a member of
the CFA Society of Orlando.
Only two months after the Federal Reserve Bank introduced its first rate hike in nearly a decade,
tax free yields have declined to five-decade lows (see chart below). Investors that have been sitting
in cash waiting for higher muni yields must have been sorely disappointed. Despite the decrease in
yields, demand for munis has remained strong and sustained with 21 straight weeks of positive
mutual fund flows, taking aggregate inflows this year to $9.8bn. Municipal bonds are up 1.6% YTD
even after finishing 2015 as the top-performing major asset class. As we have repeatedly stated
over the past few years, we continue to believe long term rates will remain lower for longer, and we
remain constructive on the municipal sector because of its tax exempt income, strong technical
factors, healthy fundamentals, and compelling yields compared to global fixed income rates.
Tax Free Yield Have Reached the Lowest Level in More Than 50 Years
Source: Janney Fixed income Strategy; Bond Buyer 20 GO Index
Scott Andreson
Director, Municipal Research
Scott is the Director of Municipal
Research for Seix Investment
Advisors. He has more than 16
years of investment experience.
He earned his MPA from USC
and is a current board member
of the National Federation of
Municipal Analysts.
Muni yields are much lower than they were in the 1980s, but as this Morgan Stanley chart below
shows, long municipal bond yields over the past 150 years have averaged approximately 4%.
Maucalay New England Municipal Bond Yields
Bond Buyer 20
S&P Index of High Grade Municipal Bonds for US
MMD 20Y Yield
CONTRIBUTORS
Dusty Self
Director, Portfolio Manager,
Tax-Exempt
Phillip Hooks, CFA
Vice President,
Municipal Credit Research
Source: Morgan Stanley Research, S&P Dow Jones Indices, Bond Buyer, MMD, NBER
2) Our Perspective
MUNI YIELD LIMBO: HOW LOW CAN YOU GO? – FEBRUARY 2016
While U.S. interest rates are low, they remain attractive compared to global fixed income rates, particularly compared to the central
banks of four developed countries and the Eurozone that are employing negative-interest rate policies. In fact, municipal yields are
near their highest levels in 20 years compared to European government debt.
Current
Yield
Spread vs. Tax-Exempt Munis
Cur
AAA Tax-Exempt Muni 10 Yr Yield
Spain 10 Year Yield
1.66
1.79
-12
Italy 10 Year Yield
France 10 Year Yield
Germany 10 Year Yield
1.57
0.56
0.20
10
109
145
3YR AVG
5YR AVG
10YR AVG
20YR AVG
Spread Z-Score Spread Z-Score Spread Z-Score Spread Z-Score
-66
0.5
-180
1.0
-129
0.8
-112
0.8
-64
70
114
0.7
0.8
0.8
-171
14
73
1.1
1.2
1.2
-131
-12
28
1.1
1.8
1.8
-118
-32
-9
1.0
2.3
2.2
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, JP Morgan
Volatility is likely to remain throughout the year given the current macroeconomic backdrop and soaring political uncertainty from
the presidential election. Investors appear to be seeking safe havens from global financial market volatility and evolving monetary
policy. Tax exempt bonds appear to fit the safe haven bill as they are highly rated with an extremely low default rate. In addition,
munis have basically no correlation to equities, and very low correlation to other fixed income classes, while offering good risk
adjusted returns.* As a result, we expect demand for tax exempt bonds to remain solid, especially as investors continue to realize
how compelling munis are on a taxable equivalent yield (see below). Finally, while yields may be lower YTD, muni/Treasury ratios,
an indicator of relative value, have actually gotten cheaper since late last year.
AAA Tax-Exempt Yield
Taxable Equivalent*
A Tax-Exempt Yield
Taxable Equivalent*
2 Year
0.52
0.92
0.69
1.22
*Highest equivalent of 43.4% with Medicare net investment income tax.
Source: Municipal Market Data 2/24/16
Source: Municipal Market Data 2/26/16
* As of 1/15/16 versus Barclays US Aggregate, Global Aggregate, US Credit Corp, US High Yield
5 Year
0.89
1.57
1.23
2.17
10 Year
1.71
3.02
2.24
3.96
30 Year
2.78
4.91
3.34
5.90
3) Our Perspective
MUNI YIELD LIMBO: HOW LOW CAN YOU GO? – FEBRUARY 2016
The assertions in this perspective are Seix Investment Advisors’ opinion.
Barclays Municipal Bond Index is a widely recognized index of investment grade tax-exempt bonds. The eight subsets of the Index are market weighted. The
Index includes general obligations, revenue bonds, insured bonds, and pre-refunded bonds.
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 selected common large capitalization stocks (most of which are listed on the New York Stock
Exchange) that is often used as a measure of the U.S. stock market.
Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
Credit Ratings noted herein are calculated based on S&P, Moody’s and Fitch ratings. Generally, ratings range from AAA, the highest quality rating, to D, the
lowest, with BBB and above being called investment grade securities. BB and below are considered below investment grade securities. If the ratings from all
three agencies are available, securities will be assigned the median rating based on the numerical equivalents. If the ratings are available from only two of the
agencies, the more conservative of the ratings will be assigned to the security. If the rating is available from only one agency, then that rating will be used. Any
security not rated by S&P, Moody’s, or Fitch is placed in the NR (Not Rated) category. Ratings do not apply to a fund or to a fund’s shares. Ratings are subject
to change.
Investment Risks: All investments involve risk. Debt securities (bonds) offer a relatively stable level of income, although bond prices will fluctuate providing the
potential for principal gain or loss. Intermediate-term, higher-quality bonds generally offer less risk than longer-term bonds and a lower rate of return. Generally,
a fund’s fixed income securities will decrease in value if interest rates rise and vice versa. A fund’s income may be subject to certain state and local taxes and,
depending on your tax status, the federal alternative minimum tax. There is no guarantee a specific investment strategy will be successful.
This information and general market-related projections are based on information available at the time, are subject to change without notice, are for
informational purposes only, are not intended as individual or specific advice, may not represent the opinions of the entire firm, and may not be relied upon for
individual investing purposes. Information provided is general and educational in nature, provided as general guidance on the subject covered, and is not
intended to be authoritative. All information contained herein is believed to be correct, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This information may coincide or
conflict with activities of the portfolio managers. It is not intended to be, and should not be construed as investment, legal, estate planning, or tax advice. Seix
Investment Advisors does not provide legal, estate planning or tax advice. Investors are advised to consult with their investment processional about their
specific financial needs and goals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
©2016 Seix Investment Advisors LLC. Seix Investment Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the SEC and a member of the RidgeWorth Capital
Management LLC network of investment firms.