1) Our Perspective
MARKET UPDATE – JANUARY 2016
Ronald Schwartz, CFA
Managing Director,
Senior Portfolio Manager,
Tax-Exempt
Ron is a Senior Portfolio
Manager focused on the TaxExempt Strategies. He has
worked in the investment
management industry since
1982. Ron received a B.A. in
Business Administration from
Adelphi University and is a CFA
Charterholder and a member of
the CFA Society of Orlando.
Municipal bonds had a solid 2015 returning 3.30%, and finishing the year as the top-performing
major asset class (see Exhibit 1 below). While it was an eventful year, with significant market
volatility and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) raising the benchmark rate last month, munis
remained buoyed by positive bond fund flows, negative net supply, and higher tax rates. This year
has begun much like 2015 finished with strong demand resulting in the 10 year AAA yield declining
to 1.71%, the lowest since pre-taper tantrum lows of 2013. While U.S. interest rates are low, they
remain attractive compared to global fixed income rates, and we expect 2016 to be similar to last
year with solid technical factors, coupled with improving fundamentals, leading to positive returns
for tax exempt bonds.
Exhibit 1: Total Returns by Asset Class in 2015
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
IG Muni
HY Muni
MBS
S&P500
EM
Source: Barclays Capital
Scott Andreson
Director, Municipal Research
Scott is the Director of Municipal
Research for Seix Investment
Advisors. He has more than 16
years of investment experience.
He earned his MPA from USC
and is a current board member
of the National Federation of
Municipal Analysts.
Exhibit 2: 10-Year MMD AAA Yield Curve
CONTRIBUTORS
Dusty Self
Director, Portfolio Manager,
Tax-Exempt
Phillip Hooks, CFA
Vice President,
Municipal Credit Research
Source: The Municipal Market Monitor (TM3)
Taxable
Muni
Treasury
Agency
IG Corp
HY Corp
2) Our Perspective
MARKET UPDATE – JANUARY 2016
Technicals Are Solid
Technical factors should remain strong and a leading contributor to performance this year. The municipal bond market is poised to
contract again as states and cities continue to limit new money capital spending and instead focus on refunding existing debt at
lower interest rates. Net issuance for 2016 is expected to total -$58bn, according to JP Morgan (see Exhibit 3 below). Muni mutual
funds have now experienced sixteen straight weeks of strong inflows. Tax exempt demand is likely to remain positive once again
this year because of the high level of taxation and munis positive performance despite the global market volatility and losses
experienced by equities and other asset classes.
Exhibit 3: Issuance Forecast, $bn
* Preliminary
Source: JPMorgan
Fundamentals Remain Healthy
Overall, we expect continued credit improvement in 2016 resulting from a growing domestic economy, increased property tax
revenue, and continued fiscal restraint for most municipalities. The asset class has maintained its high credit quality and low
default characteristics, despite the significant impact from the Great Recession. However, there remain a handful of exceptions,
even after seven years of economic expansion. Several states and their localities will most likely face additional fiscal strain this
year stemming from significant unfunded pension/OPEB liabilities (IL, NJ, CT, PA, PR, KY) or revenue reliance on oil, coal, or
natural gas commodity severance taxes (AK, LA, OK, NM, ND, WY).
Issuers that have had the political fortitude and good management skills to build their reserves, refund debt at lower rates, and
enact pension reform, will clearly benefit from an improving credit profile and should be prepared if there is any softening in the
domestic economy. Those that have kicked the pension can down-the-road should continue to underperform again this year. As a
result, we continue to favor revenue sectors over general obligation bonds. Sectors that could outperform in 2016 include
transportation, special tax, and utility sectors, in particular, toll roads, airports, sales tax, and water and sewer systems. Among
states, we especially like bonds issued by various authorities in California, Florida, and Washington.
3) Our Perspective
MARKET UPDATE – JANUARY 2016
Exhibit 4: State and Local Revenues Have Recovered from Great Recession
Source: Janney Fixed income Strategy; US Census Bureau
Credit differentiation in the municipal asset class continues to intensify post credit crisis with growing rating divergences and
security selection has never been more important, particularly in the current narrow credit spread environment. This year will likely
be another challenging environment, but munis could continue to outperform, regardless of any additional actions by the Fed, as
we continue to believe long term rates will remain lower for longer, fundamentals are solid and improving, and tax free bonds have
historically outperformed taxables in recent periods of Fed tightening.
The assertions in this perspective are Seix Investment Advisors’ opinion.
Barclays Municipal Bond Index is a widely recognized index of investment grade tax-exempt bonds. The eight subsets of the Index are market weighted. The
Index includes general obligations, revenue bonds, insured bonds, and pre-refunded bonds.
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 selected common large capitalization stocks (most of which are listed on the New York Stock
Exchange) that is often used as a measure of the U.S. stock market.
Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
Credit Ratings noted herein are calculated based on S&P, Moody’s and Fitch ratings. Generally, ratings range from AAA, the highest quality rating, to D, the
lowest, with BBB and above being called investment grade securities. BB and below are considered below investment grade securities. If the ratings from all
three agencies are available, securities will be assigned the median rating based on the numerical equivalents. If the ratings are available from only two of the
agencies, the more conservative of the ratings will be assigned to the security. If the rating is available from only one agency, then that rating will be used. Any
security not rated by S&P, Moody’s, or Fitch is placed in the NR (Not Rated) category. Ratings do not apply to a fund or to a fund’s shares. Ratings are subject
to change.
Investment Risks: All investments involve risk. Debt securities (bonds) offer a relatively stable level of income, although bond prices will fluctuate providing the
potential for principal gain or loss. Intermediate-term, higher-quality bonds generally offer less risk than longer-term bonds and a lower rate of return. Generally,
a fund’s fixed income securities will decrease in value if interest rates rise and vice versa. A fund’s income may be subject to certain state and local taxes and,
depending on your tax status, the federal alternative minimum tax. There is no guarantee a specific investment strategy will be successful.
This information and general market-related projections are based on information available at the time, are subject to change without notice, are for
informational purposes only, are not intended as individual or specific advice, may not represent the opinions of the entire firm, and may not be relied upon for
individual investing purposes. Information provided is general and educational in nature, provided as general guidance on the subject covered, and is not
intended to be authoritative. All information contained herein is believed to be correct, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This information may coincide or
conflict with activities of the portfolio managers. It is not intended to be, and should not be construed as investment, legal, estate planning, or tax advice. Seix
Investment Advisors does not provide legal, estate planning or tax advice. Investors are advised to consult with their investment processional about their
specific financial needs and goals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
©2016 Seix Investment Advisors LLC. Seix Investment Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the SEC and a member of the RidgeWorth Capital
Management LLC network of investment firms.