1) Our Perspective
MUNIS AND THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – MARCH 2016
Ronald Schwartz, CFA
Managing Director,
Senior Portfolio Manager,
Tax-Exempt
Ron is a Senior Portfolio
Manager focused on the TaxExempt Strategies. He has
worked in the investment
management industry since
1982. Ron received a B.A. in
Business Administration from
Adelphi University and is a CFA
Charterholder and a member of
the CFA Society of Orlando.
As the 2016 presidential candidate field narrows, we have received repeated questions regarding
this year’s election and the possible implications for tax exempt bonds. Recent articles in the
press have suggested that candidates’ campaign rhetoric has contributed to volatility in the
financial markets. Because of the dependence of munis on their tax-exempt status, potential
changes in tax policy are a political risk that could have a significant impact on muni yields. This
month we will take a brief look at the tax reform policies of the five remaining presidential
candidates and also review recent elections to see any market impact on the municipal bond
asset class.
Currently, none of the candidates’ tax reform proposals specifically target eliminating municipal
bond tax exemption. However, all of the tax proposals would have an effect of reducing the value
of tax exemption either through lower rates or by reducing deduction caps. The Republican
candidates support lowering marginal tax rates while Democrats generally support raising tax
rates and capping/limiting tax exempt deductions. Three of the five candidate’s tax plans
incorporate a deduction limitation which would likely have negative pricing implications for the
muni market if eventually enacted.
ï± Clinton: Hillary Clinton’s plan raises personal income and investment taxes on high-income
taxpayers with a 4% surcharge on adjusted gross income (AGI) over $5 million and
incorporates a 30% minimum tax on AGI over $1 million, while maintaining the Affordable
Care Act (ACA) 3.8% net investment surtax. Her proposal also calls for a 28% cap on tax
benefit of deductions, including municipal bond interest.
Scott Andreson
Director, Municipal Research
Scott is the Director of Municipal
Research for Seix Investment
Advisors. He has more than 16
years of investment experience.
He earned his MPA from USC
and is a current board member
of the National Federation of
Municipal Analysts.
CONTRIBUTORS
Dusty Self
Director, Portfolio Manager,
Tax-Exempt
Phillip Hooks, CFA
Vice President,
Municipal Credit Research
ï± Cruz: Ted Cruz’s plan is a flat personal income tax of 10% and a 16% VAT-style sales tax.
His plan would repeal the ACA surtax and lower the rate on capital gains and dividends
income to 10%.
ï± Kasich: John Kasich’s plan establishes three personal income tax brackets with a top rate of
28% and increases the Earned Income Tax Credit by 10%.
ï± Sanders: Bernie Sander’s plan adds four new brackets for high-income households of 37%,
43%, 48%, and a 52% top rate on taxable income over $10 million while increasing the ACA
to 10%. His proposal also calls for a 28% cap on tax benefit of deductions, which would likely
include tax exempt interest, but does not specifically list it.
ï± Trump: Donald Trump’s plan lowers the individual tax brackets to 10%, 20%, and 25%. His
plan would repeal the ACA surtax and have a maximum rate on dividends and interest of
20%. He also calls for limiting the tax value of itemized deductions, including tax exempt
interest, at an unspecified level.
Source: www.Taxfoundation.org – “Comparing the 2016 Presidential Tax Reform Proposals” 3/28/2016
2) Our Perspective
MUNIS AND THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – MARCH 2016
Interestingly, and as the two charts below show, recent presidential elections have had little impact on tax exempt yields or
Muni/Treasury ratios, despite having a litany of tax reform proposals. We believe this is because Republicans and Democrats
strongly disagree about what the goals of any tax reform should be, making any sweeping reform extremely difficult, if not
impossible, even when one party controls the White House and Congress. In addition, as we have repeatedly discussed in the
past, members of Congress generally understand the importance of tax exempt bonds for funding the majority of infrastructure
projects in their districts, and are unlikely to enact tax reform that diminishes tax exemption. Despite several Congressional tax
reform study groups over the past few years, no tax reform has been enacted that impacts municipal bonds negatively.
Muni / Treasury Ratio (%)
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research – Municipals Weekly 3/18/2016
BofA Merrill Lynch Municipal Master Index Yield-to-Worst, 12-month (%)
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research – Municipals Weekly 3/18/2016
While political risk is greater in election years, it is too early for the candidates’ campaign rhetoric to be a major valuation factor for
the muni market as the earliest an elected candidate could propose tax reform policy would be in January of 2017. No matter who
comes out on top in November, we continue to believe that it is highly unlikely that any significant tax reform that impacts the tax
exemption of municipal bonds will be enacted as it would require full participation by Congress and the White House.
3) Our Perspective
MUNIS AND THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – MARCH 2016
The assertions in this perspective are Seix Investment Advisors’ opinion.
BofA Merrill Lynch Municipal Master Index tracks the performance of the investment-grade U.S. tax-exempt bond market. Qualifying bonds must have at
least one year remaining term to maturity, a fixed coupon schedule, and an investment grade rating (based on average of Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch).
Investment Risks: All investments involve risk. Debt securities (bonds) offer a relatively stable level of income, although bond prices will fluctuate providing the
potential for principal gain or loss. Intermediate-term, higher-quality bonds generally offer less risk than longer-term bonds and a lower rate of return. Generally,
a portfolio’s fixed income securities will decrease in value if interest rates rise and vice versa. A portfolio’s income may be subject to certain state and local
taxes and, depending on your tax status, the federal alternative minimum tax. There is no guarantee a specific investment strategy will be successful.
This information and general market-related projections are based on information available at the time, are subject to change without notice, are for
informational purposes only, are not intended as individual or specific advice, may not represent the opinions of the entire firm, and may not be relied upon for
individual investing purposes. Information provided is general and educational in nature, provided as general guidance on the subject covered, and is not
intended to be authoritative. All information contained herein is believed to be correct, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This information may coincide or
conflict with activities of the portfolio managers. It is not intended to be, and should not be construed as investment, legal, estate planning, or tax advice. Seix
Investment Advisors does not provide legal, estate planning or tax advice. Investors are advised to consult with their investment processional about their
specific financial needs and goals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
©2016 Seix Investment Advisors LLC. Seix Investment Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the SEC and a member of the RidgeWorth Capital
Management LLC network of investment firms.