1) A Review by Seix Investment Advisors LLC
FIRST QUARTER 2016
RIDGEWORTH INSIGHTS:
INVESTMENT GRADE FIXED INCOME
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
•
Central bank actions calmed investors’ fears, leading to a
rebound in riskier bonds.
We think deflationary forces in the global economy will
keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future.
Perry Troisi
Chief Investment Officer
and Chairman,
Seix Investment Advisors
•
•
James F. Keegan
Investors were concerned about global growth and
fled risk assets during the first six weeks of the quarter,
causing Treasuries to rally.
Managing Director,
Seix Investment Advisors
Senior Portfolio Manager,
RidgeWorth Investments
Senior Portfolio Manager,
RidgeWorth Investments
Michael Rieger
Seth Antiles, PhD
Managing Director,
Seix Investment Advisors
Managing Director,
Seix Investment Advisors
Carlos Catoya
Jon Yozzo
Head of Investment Grade
Credit Research,
Seix Investment Advisors
Head of Investment Grade
Corporate Bond Trading,
Seix Investment Advisors
Senior Portfolio Manager,
RidgeWorth Investments
Portfolio Manager,
RidgeWorth Investments
Senior Portfolio Manager,
RidgeWorth Investments
Portfolio Manager,
RidgeWorth Investments
RIDGEWORTH FUNDS
RidgeWorth Seix Core Bond
RidgeWorth Seix Corporate Bond
RidgeWorth Seix Limited Duration
RidgeWorth Seix Short-Term Bond
RidgeWorth Seix Total Return Bond
RidgeWorth Seix U.S. Government Securities
Ultra-Short Bond
RidgeWorth Seix U.S. Mortgage
RidgeWorth Seix Ultra-Short Bond
The first quarter was a tale of two markets. Investors fled
risk during the first six weeks of the year, causing Treasury
securities to rally and credit to underperform. The situation
partially reversed itself midway through the first quarter:
Investors became more comfortable with risk, helping credit
sectors recover while Treasury yields remained near the lows
in terms of yields.
2)
FIRST QUARTER 2016 | PAGE 2
RIDGEWORTH INSIGHTS: INVESTMENT GRADE FIXED INCOME
The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index finished the first
quarter up 3.03%.1 The Barclays U.S. Treasury Index rose
3.20% as the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 1.77% from
2.27% at the start of the year.1
four rate hikes). Then the European Central Bank cut its
deposit rate further into negative territory, increased its
Quantitative Easing program and expanded the eligible
collateral to include non-financial corporate bonds.
Exhibit 1: Index Performance – 1Q16
These central bank actions put a floor under risk assets.
Fed dovishness also led to a weakening of the dollar,
which contributed to rebounds in prices for oil and other
commodities. After plunging in late 2015 and the first few
weeks of 2016, crude oil prices increased from a low of
$26.21 per barrel on February 11 to $39.75 at the end
of the quarter. Lower quality and higher beta securities
led the market during the last six weeks of the period.
Yields on Treasuries rose modestly, while credit spreads
tightened significantly from the wides in February.
108
Growth of 100 ($)
106
104
102
100
98
/16
31
3/
6
1/1
3/
/16
15
2/
6
1/1
2/
16
5/
1/1
1/1
/16
96
I Barclays U.S. Aggregate
I Barclays U.S. Treasury Bellwethers (10 Y)
I Barclays U.S. Aggregate Credit/Corporate/Investment Grade
Source: Barclays
Bonds overall finished the three-month period with strong
total returns, despite the market’s volatility. Virtually all
fixed income sectors posted solid returns for the quarter
as a whole.
Exhibit 2: Fixed Income Performance – 1Q16
CENTRAL BANKS SOOTHE INVESTORS’ FEARS
4.46%
3.97%
4
3.56%
3.47%
3.35%
3.20%
3.03%
Return (%)
The aversion to risk early in the period reflected concerns
about anemic growth globally, and a particular concern
about a slowdown in China. The yield on the 10-year
Treasury note fell from 2.27% to begin the year to 1.66%
as of February 11 as investors sought safety, while spreads
between yields on Treasuries and on lower-credit
securities widened considerably.
5
3
1.98%
2
1.67%
1.33%
1
1
Source: Barclays
RIDGEWORTH INSIGHTS: INVESTMENT GRADE FIXED INCOME
Sources: Barclays; Credit Suisse
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Central banks once again came to the markets’ rescue.
The Bank of Japan surprised investors on January 29
when it announced that it would adopt a negative interest
rate policy. On February 11, Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
Chair Janet Yellen gave dovish testimony to the Senate
Banking Committee, and later in the quarter the Fed’s “dot
plot” signaled a less aggressive policy in 2016 (two versus
3)
FIRST QUARTER 2016 | PAGE 3
Please contact 866.595.2470 or visit www.ridgeworth.com for more information.
OUTLOOK: STILL LOWER FOR LONGER
We expect deflationary pressures—including excessive
debt, excess global capacity, slowing productivity, aging
demographics, tepid potential U.S. growth and China’s
transition from an industrial to a consumer economy—to
continue to exceed inflationary pressures. The threat of
deflation or disinflation is likely to cause central banks to
remain highly accommodative for the foreseeable future,
and to keep long-term interest rates low for an extended
period of time.
The U.S. and global economies remain weak. We see a
one-in-two likelihood of a global recession—defined as
global growth below 3%—in the next 12 months, and a
one-in-three chance of recession for the U.S. economy.
Given that economic backdrop and global deflationary
pressures, we expect no more than one interest rate hike
in the United States this year, and in fact, we think the
Barclays Govt/Credit Bond Index is an unmanaged Index that tracks the performance
of US Government and corporate bonds rated investment grade or better, with
maturities of at least one year.
Barclays Municipal Bond Index is an unmanaged index that is considered
representative of the broad market for investment grade, tax-exempt bonds with a
maturity of at least one year.
Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index of U.S. bonds, which
includes reinvestment of any earnings and is widely used to measure the overall
performance of the U.S. bond market.
Barclays U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities Index is an unmanaged index that
measures the performance of investment grade fixed-rate mortgage-backed
passthrough securities of GNMA, FNMA, and FHLMC.
Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Index is an unmanaged market valueweighted index that covers the universe of fixed rate, non-investment grade debt.
Barclays U.S. Corporate Investment Grade Index is a widely recognized index that
tracks the performance of investment grade bonds.
Barclays U.S. CMBS Investment Grade Index measures the market of conduit and
fusion CMBS deals with a minimum current deal size of $300mn. The index is
divided into two subcomponents: the U.S. Aggregate-eligible component, which
contains bonds that are ERISA eligible under the underwriter’s exemption, and the
non-U.S. Aggregate-eligible component, which consists of bonds that are not ERISA
eligible. The U.S. CMBS Investment Grade Index was launched on January 1, 1997.
Barclays US Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (TIPS) Index consists of inflationprotection securities issued by the US Treasury. They must have at least one year
until final maturity and at least $250 million par amount outstanding. They are rated
investment grade by at least two of the following ratings agencies: Moody’s, S&P,
Fitch. They must be fixed rate, dollar denominated and non-convertible.
Barclays U.S. Treasury Index includes public obligations of the U.S. Treasury with a
remaining maturity of one year or more.
Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index is a market-weighted index that tracks the
performance of institutional leveraged loans.
Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Index is a measure of the value of the United States
dollar relative to other world currencies.
Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
federal funds rate is more likely to fall back to 0% than to
rise to 1%. We expect the 10-year Treasury note to yield
between 1.5% to 2.0% during the next 12 months, but we
would not be surprised if the yield falls closer to 1%.
China and Europe present major risks. We think China will
have to weaken its currency, which could destabilize the
markets. We believe Europe is stagnating economically,
which could polarize politics and threaten social stability, a
situation worsened by the refugee crisis.
We expect oil production to decrease in the coming
months, bringing inventories closer to the five-year
average by year-end and supporting higher prices. As a
result, we see value in bonds issued by well-run energy
companies with the financial strength to weather market
distress.
Beta is a measure of the volatility of a security or a portfolio in comparison to its
benchmark.
Credit Spreads are the difference between the yields of sector types and/or
maturity ranges.
Investment Risks:
Bonds offer a relatively stable level of income, although bond prices will fluctuate
providing the potential for principal gain or loss. Intermediate-term, higher-quality
bonds generally offer less risk than longer-term bonds and a lower rate of return.
Generally, a fund’s fixed income securities will decrease in value if interest rates rise
and vice versa. Mortgage-backed investments involve risk of loss due to prepayments
and, like any bond, due to default. Because of the sensitivity of mortgage-related
securities to changes in interest rates, a fund’s performance may be more volatile
than if it did not hold these securities. U.S. Government guarantees apply only to the
underlying securities of a fund’s portfolio and not a fund’s shares.
The views expressed herein are as of the quarter-end specified. This information is
general in nature, provided as general guidance on the subject covered, and is not
intended to be authoritative. It is subject to change without notice as market conditions
change, and is not intended to predict the performance of any individual security,
market sector, or RidgeWorth Fund. All information contained herein is believed to
be correct, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Investors are advised to consult with
their investment professional about their specific financial needs and goals before
making any investment decision.
Before investing, investors should carefully read the
prospectus or summary prospectus and consider the fund’s
investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Please
call 888.784.3863 or visit ridgeworth.com to obtain a
prospectus or summary prospectus, which contains this and
other information about the funds.
©2016 RidgeWorth Investments. All rights reserved. RidgeWorth Investments is
the trade name for RidgeWorth Capital Management LLC, an investment adviser
registered with the SEC and the adviser to the RidgeWorth Funds. RidgeWorth
Funds are distributed by RidgeWorth Distributors LLC, which is not affiliated with
the adviser. Seix Investment Advisors LLC is a registered investment adviser with
the SEC and a member of the RidgeWorth Capital Management LLC network of
investment firms. All third party marks are the property of their respective owners.
4)
FIRST QUARTER 2016 | PAGE 4
ridgeworth.com | 866.595.2470
3333 Piedmont Road, NE
Suite 1500
A
tlanta, GA 30305
ABOUT RIDGEWORTH INVESTMENTS
RidgeWorth Investments—a global investment management firm headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia with approximately $37.9 billion
in assets under management as of March 31, 2016—offers investors access to a select group of boutique investment managers and
subadvisers. RidgeWorth wholly owns three boutiques: Ceredex Value Advisors LLC, Seix Investment Advisors LLC and Silvant Capital
Management LLC, and holds a minority ownership in Zevenbergen Capital Investments LLC. WCM Investment Management and Capital
Innovations, LLC serve as subadvisers to the RidgeWorth Funds. Through these six investment managers, RidgeWorth offers a wide variety
of fixed income and equity disciplines, providing investment management services to a growing client base that includes institutional,
individual and high net worth investors.
For more information about RidgeWorth, its boutiques and its subadvisers, visit ridgeworth.com.
ABOUT SEIX INVESTMENT ADVISORS LLC
Seix Investment Advisors, one of RidgeWorth’s investment management boutiques, has exclusively focused on managing fixed income
assets since 1992. Seix seeks to generate competitive absolute and relative risk-adjusted returns over the full market cycle through
a bottom-up focused, top-down aware process. Seix employs multi-dimensional approaches based on strict portfolio construction
methodology, sell disciplines and trading strategies with prudent risk management as a cornerstone.
For more information about Seix, visit seixadvisors.com.
RFRI-INVG-0316