1) Seix Market Insights
Investment Grade Fixed Income
Executive Summary
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Divergence in central bank policy drove fixed income markets, as the Federal Reserve Bank
announced a long-awaited increase in interest rates.
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Increased yields in the fourth quarter led to negative nominal returns for most fixed income sectors.
High quality outperformed lower quality assets during the quarter.
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Excess returns for most of the investment grade universe rebounded into positive territory after a
difficult third quarter, but year-to-date excess returns remained negative for all but a few sectors.
James F. Keegan
Chief Investment Officer
and Chairman
Perry Troisi
Managing Director,
Senior Portfolio Manager
- U.S. Government/Securitized
Michael Rieger
Managing Director,
Senior Portfolio Manager
- Securitized Assets
Seth Antiles, PhD
Managing Director,
Senior Portfolio Manager
- Global
Carlos Catoya
Portfolio Manager - Credit
and Head of Investment Grade
Credit Research
Jon Yozzo
Portfolio Manager - Credit
and Head of Investment Grade
Corporate Bond Trading
4Q15
2) Seix Market Insights
Investment Grade Fixed Income
Divergence in central bank policy
The Fed’s long-awaited decision to raise the target
federal funds rate to 0.25%-0.50%, the first increase
after more than nine years, commanded the attention
of fixed income markets during the quarter. In the wake
of disappointing inflation figures in Europe and Japan,
the European Central Bank cut its deposit rate further
into negative territory and extended its quantitative
easing (QE) program to March 2017 or beyond, while
the Bank of Japan’s QE program continued unabated.
The Fed held off from hiking rates in September but
followed through in December, ratifying a divergence
in central bank policy that has been anticipated for
most of 2015.
This divergence in central bank policy increases the
attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets and the trade
weighted dollar index (DXY) gained 9.3% as a result.
Given the strength of the dollar and the modestly
higher yields, yield differentials of U.S. Treasuries
against most other developed markets have become
even more compelling. These conditions are likely
to support U.S. Treasuries going forward, as capital
4Q15
tends to flow where it is treated best. Demand for high
quality, income producing assets remains robust and
is likely to serve as a balance to foreign central bank
reserve managers selling of Treasuries to defend their
currencies while this policy divergence persists.
Exhibit 1: Interest Rates in U.S., Europe & Japan (12/31/15)
3.02
3.0
n United States
n Japan
n Europe
2.5
Interest Rates (%)
Yields rose as the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) finally
raised interest rates for the first time in nearly a
decade. The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index declined
by 0.57% over the quarter, while the S&P 500 Index
gained 7.04%, a rebound from a weak third quarter for
all risk assets. The 10-year Treasury ended the quarter
at 2.27%, an increase of 23 basis points (bps) from the
previous quarter, but only up 10bps for the full year.
Given the Fed rate increase the front end of the yield
curve underperformed, with the 2-year Treasury yield
rising 42bps in the fourth quarter and 38bps for the
full year.
2.0
1.76
1.5
1.0
2.27
2.09
1.31
1.27
1.49
1.05
0.63
0.5
0.0
-0.01-0.35
-0.01 -0.30
0.03 -0.05
0.07
0.17
0.27
-0.5
2-year
3-year
5-year
7-year
10-year
30-year
Source: Bloomberg, data pulled 1/25/16.
Commodities prices remained under pressure during
the fourth quarter, led again by declining prices for
crude oil. While it remains popular to characterize
this as a supply driven story, the decline is as much,
if not more, a dynamic driven by lower demand
amidst a global growth slowdown. This dynamic puts
significant pressure on bonds issued by commodityproducing companies and countries alike.
Muted returns in fixed income sectors
Increased yields led to negative nominal returns
for most fixed income sectors in the fourth quarter,
with the exception of municipal bonds. Within the
investment grade universe, a quality bias persisted
with higher-quality bonds performing better over the
3) Corporate bond nominal returns were negative for the
quarter and the full year. Despite a better performance
in excess returns over the final quarter, the full year
was decidedly negative for corporate bonds. Despite
these headwinds, corporate bond issuance rebounded
in October and November, allowing for yet another
calendar year record to be set. Residential mortgagebacked securities had a more subdued quarter and
year, where a solid fourth quarter performance brought
the sector back to an essentially flat year in excess
return terms. Commercial mortgage-backed securities
experienced a tougher quarter in both nominal and
excess return terms, as a fair amount of paper was for
sale amidst a robust new issuance calendar.
Our outlook
While the Fed “dot chart” forecasts four interest rate
hikes in 2016, the market enters the new calendar
year only discounting two hikes. We side with the
market and see less rate hikes as the more likely path.
Additionally, we cannot rule out the possibility that the
Fed may reverse itself altogether and return to zero or
even introduce a negative interest rate policy, should
financial conditions tighten too much or fundamental
economic data disappoint and incite a growth scare.
The economic slowdown in China remains a primary
concern amongst investors, especially given the
government’s attempts to institute what appears to be
a stealth devaluation of its currency. We are monitoring
import/export data throughout Asia in order to gain a
clearer picture of the Chinese growth trajectory.
Exhibit 2: U.S. Treasury Yield Curve (12/31/15)
3.5
3.0
Yield (%)
quarter. Excess returns rebounded from a difficult
third quarter, but the bounce was moderate and yearto-date excess returns remained negative for all but a
few securitized sectors, with asset backed securities
recording the best performance.
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
2-year
5-year
10-year
30-year
Source: Bloomberg, data pulled 1/25/16.
We continue to expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury
to remain in the 2.0% to 2.5% range, though it is more
likely to breakout below the 2.0% threshold than to
exceed 2.5%. Yield differentials versus developed
market sovereign debt globally supports the demand
for Treasuries, even offering capital appreciation
potential despite the ever present consensus for
higher rates. Again, our view is that money goes where
it’s treated best—and right now it’s treated best in the
United States.
In this environment of elevated volatility, we will
continue to pursue safe income at a reasonable price.
4) Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index of U.S. bonds, which includes
reinvestment of any earnings and is widely used to measure the overall performance of the
U.S. bond market.
S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 selected common large capitalization stocks
(most of which are listed on the New York Stock Exchange) that is often used as a measure of
the U.S. stock market.
Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Index is a measure of the value of the United States dollar relative
to other world currencies.
Investors can not invest directly in an index.
A Basis Point is equal to 0.01%.
Asset-Backed Security (ABS) is a financial security backed by a loan, lease or receivables
against assets other than real estate and mortgage-backed securities. For investors, assetbacked securities are an alternative to investing in corporate debt.
Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) are a type of mortgage-backed security
that is secured by the loan on a commercial property. A CMBS can provide liquidity to real
estate investors and to commercial lenders.
Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS) is a type of security whose cash flows come
from residential debt such as mortgages, home-equity loans and subprime mortgages. This is
a type of mortgage-backed security that focuses on residential instead of commercial debt.
Yield Curve is a curve that shows the relationship between yields and maturity dates for a set
of similar bonds, usually Treasuries, at any given point in time.
Investment Risks: Bonds offer a relatively stable level of income, although bond prices will
fluctuate providing the potential for principal gain or loss. Intermediate-term, higher-quality
bonds generally offer less risk than longer-term bonds and a lower rate of return. Generally,
a fund’s fixed income securities will decrease in value if interest rates rise and vice versa.
Mortgage-backed investments involve risk of loss due to prepayments and, like any bond, due
to default. Because of the sensitivity of mortgage-related securities to changes in interest
rates, a fund’s performance may be more volatile than if it did not hold these securities. U.S.
Government guarantees apply only to the underlying securities of a fund’s portfolio and not a
fund’s shares.
The views expressed herein are as of the quarter-end specified. This information is general
in nature, provided as general guidance on the subject covered, and is not intended to be
authoritative. It is subject to change without notice as market conditions change, and is not
intended to predict the performance of any individual security, market sector, or RidgeWorth
Fund. All information contained herein is believed to be correct, but accuracy cannot be
guaranteed. Investors are advised to consult with their investment professional about their
specific financial needs and goals before making any investment decision.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
©2016 Seix Investment Advisors LLC. Seix Investment Advisors LLC is a registered investment
adviser with the SEC and a member of the RidgeWorth Capital Management LLC network of
investment firms. All third party marks are the property of their respective owners.
RFRI-SEIXIG-1215