1) Seix Market Insights
Leveraged Loan and High Yield
Executive Summary
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Leveraged loan and high yield fundamentals remain strong.
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George Goudelias
Head of Leveraged Finance,
Senior Portfolio Manager
Macroeconomic issues led investors to flee risk.
High yield fund closures don’t point to systemic issues.
Vincent Flanagan, CFA
Portfolio Manager and
Senior High Yield Research
Analyst - Media, Technology
Michael Kirkpatrick
Senior Portfolio Mananger,
Senior High Yield Research
Analyst - Gaming, Finance
James FitzPatrick, CFA
Portfolio Manager,
Head of Leveraged
Finance Trading
4Q15
2) Seix Market Insights
Leveraged Loan and High Yield
The fourth quarter of 2015 was one of the most
difficult in recent memory for both leveraged loans and
high yield bonds. Investor concerns about a range of
issues—including China’s flagging economy, unrest in
the Middle East and the continued slump in commodity
prices—contributed to a sell-off across equity and
fixed income markets.
Leveraged loans
Exhibit 1: Leveraged Loan Fund Flows
Although issuance in the collateralized loan obligation
market declined from last year’s record pace, 2015
closed with roughly $100 billion in issuance—the
second-highest level on record. We expect issuance
figures to continue to fall due to more stringent
regulations on asset managers.
4.12
4
Billions ($)
2
0
-1.35
-1.65
-2.75
-6.17
-9.61
-2
-4
-6
-8
n Leveraged Loan
n High Yield Bond
-10
October 2015
November 2015
December 2015
Source: Strategic Insight, data pulled 1/21/16
Investors sought out relatively safe areas of the
financial markets, resulting in relatively poor
performance in the high yield and leveraged loan
markets. The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index declined
0.57% during the three months through December,
while the Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index declined
1.96% and the Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield
Index fell 2.06%.
Fundamentals in the leveraged loan market remain
relatively strong: Corporate balance sheets are
healthy and the default rate is well below historical
averages. Default forecasts in the leveraged loan
market are forecasted to be 2.0% in 2016 and 2.5%
in 2017. Not including commodities-related loans,
default forecasts in the leveraged loan market are
around 1.5% for both 2016 and 2017. 1
Exhibit 2: Historical and Projected Default Rates
15
Par-Weighted Default Rates (%)
6
Leveraged loans suffered from investors’ relatively
low tolerance for risk during the quarter. Continued
weakness in the Energy and Metals and Mining
sectors contributed to losses among leveraged loans,
but had a greater negative impact on the high yield
market, which has larger exposure to energy firms.
n High Yield Bond
n Leveraged Loan
12.8
12
10.3
9
6
4.5
3.9
3
0
3.0
2.3
1.8
0.8
0.4 0.2
2007
2008
2009
2010
1.7
0.4
2011
1.3 1.4
2012
Source: J.P.Morgan, data pulled 1/21/16
1
4Q15
Source: JPMorgan Securities
2.0
2.5
1.7
1.6 1.7
1.8 1.7
2013
2014
2015 2016E 2017E
0.7
3) From a valuations perspective, yields hovered around
7.4% at the end of the quarter with spreads near
historic averages, suggesting that investors are being
compensated well for the risk they are taking on. The
Federal Reserve Bank’s December interest rate hike
benefited the loan market, because floating rate loans
can act as a hedge in a rising rate environment.
High yield bonds
The quarter presented both good news and bad news
for high yield investors. On the negative side, high yield
bonds suffered from investors’ aversion to higher-risk
investments. What’s more, several high yield mutual
funds shut their doors after facing liquidity problems
amid mounting redemption requests from shareholders.
Concerns about higher interest rates also fueled
investors’ worries about the high yield market. These
events led to a broad retreat among high yield bond
investors. In December alone, the high yield market saw
an outflow of $9 billion—the fourth-largest monthly
outflow on record.
The good news: The widespread volatility among high
yield bonds has led to severe price dislocations in the
market. The result is that there are considerable potential
opportunities for experienced investors who can navigate
the market’s complexities and avoid bonds with higher
potential for default. We’re seeing potential opportunities
among bonds issued by real estate investment trusts,
finance and healthcare firms. And despite the problems
in the Energy sector, we are seeing potential opportunities
among select issuers that have been unfairly beaten
down by investors.
Outlook
Concerns about these markets are valid in many cases,
meaning that investors will need to perform careful due
diligence to identify attractive investment opportunities.
Fortunately, we don’t believe that the leveraged finance
markets face any fundamental or structural issues that
pose long-term problems. The high yield funds that
were forced to shut down largely invested heavily in very
low-quality issues, and are not indicative of a liquidity
crunch in the market more broadly, in our opinion.
Meanwhile, the broad selloffs in both the high yield and
leveraged loan markets have helped uncover appealing
potential opportunities for disciplined investors.
4) Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index is an unmanaged index of U.S. bonds, which includes
reinvestment of any earnings and is widely used to measure the overall performance of the
U.S. bond market. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted
index that covers the universe of fixed rate, non-investment grade debt. Investors cannot
invest directly in an index.
Collateralized loan obligations are securities backed by a pool of debt, often low-rated
corporate loans.
Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index is a market-weighted index that tracks the performance
of institutional leveraged loans.
Credit Spreads are the difference between the yields of sector types and/or maturity ranges.
Credit Ratings noted herein are calculated based on S&P, Moody’s and Fitch ratings. Generally,
ratings range from AAA, the highest quality rating, to D, the lowest, with BBB and above being
called investment grade securities. BB and below are considered below investment grade
securities. If the ratings from all three agencies are available, securities will be assigned the
median rating based on the numerical equivalents. If the ratings are available from only two of
the agencies, the more conservative of the ratings will be assigned to the security. If the rating
is available from only one agency, then that rating will be used. Ratings do not apply to a fund
or to a fund’s shares. Ratings are subject to change.
Real Estate Investment Trust (REITS) is a type of security that invests in real estate through
property or mortgages and often trades on major exchanges like a stock.
Investment Risks: Bonds offer a relatively stable level of income, although bond prices will
fluctuate providing the potential for principal gain or loss. Intermediate-term, higher-quality
bonds generally offer less risk than longer-term bonds and a lower rate of return. Generally, a
fund’s fixed income securities will decrease in value if interest rates rise and vice versa. Although
a fund’s yield may be higher than that of fixed income funds that purchase higher-rated securities,
the potentially higher yield is a function of the greater risk of that fund’s underlying securities.
Floating rate loans are typically senior and secured, in contrast to other below-investment grade
securities. However, there is no guarantee that the value of the collateral will not decline, causing
a loan to be substantially unsecured. Loans generally are subject to restrictions on resale.
Participation interests in loans, rather than direct ownership, may limit the ability of a fund to
enforce its rights and may involve assuming additional credit risks.
The views expressed by the funds’ managers are as of the quarter-end specified. This
information is general in nature, provided as general guidance on the subject covered, and is
not intended to be authoritative. It is subject to change without notice as market conditions
change, and is not intended to predict the performance of any individual security, market sector,
or RidgeWorth Fund. All information contained herein is believed to be correct, but accuracy
cannot be guaranteed. Investors are advised to consult with their investment professional
about their specific financial needs and goals before making any investment decision.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
©2016 Seix Investment Advisors LLC. Seix Investment Advisors LLC is a registered investment
adviser with the SEC and a member of the RidgeWorth Capital Management LLC network of
investment firms. All third party marks are the property of their respective owners.
RFRI-SEIXLL-1215