1) Seix Market Insights
Tax-Exempt Fixed Income
Executive Summary
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Ron Schwartz, CFA
Managing Director,
Senior Portfolio Manager
The yield curve flattened during the fourth quarter in anticipation of the
Federal Reserve Bank’s December interest rate increase.
Demand remained strong in the municipal bond market, as did issuer
fundamentals.
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We remain bullish on municipal bonds as we enter 2016.
Dusty Self
Managing Director,
Portfolio Manager
Christopher D. Carter, CFA
Director,
Portfolio Manager
4Q15
2) Seix Market Insights
Tax-Exempt Fixed Income
Municipal bonds had a strong fourth quarter and
finished the year as the top-performing major asset
class of 2015. The yield curve flattened as the bond
market prepared for a higher short-term target rate
coming out of the Federal Reserve Bank’s (Fed) midDecember meeting. We continue to be bullish on
municipal bonds, in part because high tax rates for
investors in top brackets are likely to continue driving
demand for tax-exempt sources of income.
Yield ratio declines but remains elevated
Strong demand was met with unseasonably low fourth
quarter issuance leading to a historical outperformance
of municipals versus other fixed income products. Net
fund flows of approximately $5.9 billion in December
brought yields down and narrowed credit spreads.
than comparable Treasuries, particularly for investors
in the highest tax brackets.
Fundamentals remain healthy
Municipal issuers’ finances remained solid in the
fourth quarter, and overall municipal credit quality
continued to improve for the vast majority of issuers
with fewer defaults, overall improved pension funding
levels and more upgrades than downgrades from the
credit rating agencies. Revenues rose 5.7% year-overyear in the third quarter, driven mainly by growth in
personal income and sales taxes, and was the 15th
consecutive quarter of revenue growth for state and
local governments.
Exhibit 2: State and Local Government Tax Revenues
(4Q13 – 3Q15)
Exhibit 1: Municipal Bond Fund Flows (2015)
300
250
4,059
3,403
2,994
Billions ($)
Millions ($)
3000
200
2,478
2000
1000
924
707
201.4
208.1
4Q13
4000
276.4
258.6
5000 4,849
1Q14
204.2
213.0
218.7
4Q14
1Q15
211.5
150
100
-361 -1,237 -2,295 -566 -1,898
0
50
-1000
0
-2000
2Q14
3Q14
2Q15
3Q15
Source: Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015.
-3000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May June July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: Lipper, data pulled 1/20/16.
Ratios between the yields on municipal bonds and
Treasuries declined, with 10-year AAA municipal bonds
finishing the year yielding slightly more than 90% of
comparably dated Treasury notes. Even so, ratios remain
high by historical standards, and municipal bonds
continue to pay significantly higher after-tax yields
4Q15
Low-quality bonds in other parts of the fixed income
markets sold off dramatically late in 2015, leading
to wider credit spreads. This was not the case in the
municipal market, and in fact credit spreads declined
in the fourth quarter to extraordinarily tight levels.
3) Outlook
We remain very bullish on municipal bonds as we
enter 2016. Munis continue to offer high after-tax
yields relative to Treasuries, making them attractive to
investors in the higher tax brackets. *
Volatility was muted in 2015, relative to other fixed
income assets, but we expect it to rise in the year
to come. In a more volatile market we would not be
surprised to see credit spreads widen, as they have in
other parts of the fixed income universe.
We expect most of the municipal bond market to
perform well in 2016. That said, we are concerned
about states such as Pennsylvania and Illinois, which
haven’t managed to put together budgets even during
the economic upswing or resolved significant unfunded
pension liabilities. These issuers could be hit hard if the
economy were to soften. We expect additional negative
headlines about Puerto Rico, as its current fiscal
situation is extremely weak and unsustainable. Still, we
do not expect the island’s debt crisis to have a meaningful
systemic impact on the municipal bond market.
We continue to favor bonds backed by revenues from
transportation and utilities projects, including toll
roads, airports and water and sewer systems. Among
states, we especially like bonds issued by various
authorities in California, Florida and states in the
Southeast and Southwest.
Discussions of tax policy around the upcoming
presidential campaign may cause investors some
pause, but we believe they will have little lasting
impact on the market. We believe political dysfunction
in Washington makes significant tax reform highly
unlikely in the near future.
* The average 10-year U.S. Treasury yielded 2.13%. The average 10-year municipal bond yielded 2.09%. Source: Bloomberg, as of 12/31/15.
4) Credit Ratings noted herein are calculated based on S&P, Moody’s and Fitch ratings.
Generally, ratings range from AAA, the highest quality rating, to D, the lowest, with BBB
and above being called investment grade securities. BB and below are considered below
investment grade securities. If the ratings from all three agencies are available, securities
will be assigned the median rating based on the numerical equivalents. If the ratings are
available from only two of the agencies, the more conservative of the ratings will be assigned
to the security. If the rating is available from only one agency, then that rating will be used.
Any security not rated by S&P, Moody’s, or Fitch is placed in the NR (Not Rated) category.
Ratings do not apply to a fund or to a fund’s shares. Ratings are subject to change.
Credit Spreads are the difference between the yields of sector types and/or maturity ranges.
Yield Curve is a curve that shows the relationship between yields and maturity dates for a
set of similar bonds, usually Treasuries, at any given point in time.
Investment Risks: Bonds offer a relatively stable level of income, although bond prices will
fluctuate providing the potential for principal gain or loss. Intermediate-term, higher-quality
bonds generally offer less risk than longer-term bonds and a lower rate of return. Generally,
a fund’s fixed income securities will decrease in value if interest rates rise and vice versa. A
fund’s income may be subject to certain state and local taxes and, depending on your tax
status, the federal alternative minimum tax.
The views expressed herein are as of the quarter-end specified. This information is general
in nature, provided as general guidance on the subject covered, and is not intended to be
authoritative. It is subject to change without notice as market conditions change, and is not
intended to predict the performance of any individual security, market sector, or RidgeWorth
Fund. All information contained herein is believed to be correct, but accuracy cannot be
guaranteed. Investors are advised to consult with their investment professional about their
specific financial needs and goals before making any investment decision..
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
©2016 Seix Investment Advisors LLC. Seix Investment Advisors LLC is a registered investment
adviser with the SEC and a member of the RidgeWorth Capital Management LLC network of
investment firms. All third party marks are the property of their respective owners.
RFRI-SEIXTX-1215