Behavioral Finance
360°Behavioral View
May 2015
A Tale of Two Portfolios, or More Applicably a Portfolio in Transition:
Conclusion
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Oil & Gas Drilling
% of
Energy
Exposure
8%
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
15%
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
15% 38%
Oil & Gas Storage & Transporta
Less
Sensitivity to Absolute
Price of Oil
6/30/2013
0%
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
45%
Integrated Oil & Gas
18%
Coal & Consumable Fuels
More
6/30/2014
0% 62%
% of
Energy
Exposure
Oil & Gas Drilling
12%
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
24%
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
5% 41%
Oil & Gas Storage & Transporta
Less
Sensitivity to Absolute
Price of Oil
As the price of oil collapsed, our behavioral
large cap value strategy dynamically shifted
energy exposure from a stance that was
positioned to capture the high price of oil to
one that was less susceptible to the price of
oil.
Below are three different periods
showing the energy exposure of a
Behavioral Large Cap Value representative
account. The first two cuts show how we
were positioned at peak oil, the last how the
portfolio had shifted exposure as the price of
oil declined. In the first two time periods,
notice how our overall exposure to subindustries that are more levered to the
absolute price of oil is little changed.
Contrast this with the 12/31/14 portfolio.
Note how the portfolio dynamically
adjusted to sub-industries less driven by the
absolute price of oil.
0%
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
41%
Integrated Oil & Gas
18%
Coal & Consumable Fuels
0% 59%
% of
Energy
Exposure
More
Less
Sensitivity to Absolute
Price of Oil
Our Behavioral based strategies are
specifically designed to trade on actual
12/31/2014
shifts in fundamentals and sentiment, not
Oil & Gas Drilling
4%
market “head fakes.” Over time more often
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
12%
than not the market will go one direction in
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
0% 16%
the short term only to turn on a dime and
Oil & Gas Storage & Transporta
22%
head the other direction. As the price of oil
continues to climb the odds are increasing
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
62%
that the portfolio will self-adjust and gain
Integrated Oil & Gas
0%
more exposure to those sub-industries that
Coal & Consumable Fuels
0% 84%
have greater exposure to the absolute level
Source: Sterling Capital Management Analytics
of oil as it becomes more attractive to own
them.
That said it is futile to try to game the investment process. As of this time, our investment
process has not adjusted the portfolios due to this increase in oil price. One should be rest-assured, if
the trend persists (and or the price of oil doesn’t go back down and fundamentals support an
adjustment), much as we saw the adjustment occur on the way down to holdings less sensitive to the
price of oil, we will likely see the portfolio positions adjust and ultimately own more names that are
levered to the absolute price of oil.
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NOT TO BE DISTRIBUTED OR COMMUNICATED TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC
The opinions contained in the preceding commentary reflect those of Sterling Capital Management LLC, and not those of BB&T Corporation or its executives. The stated opinions
are for general information only and are not meant to be predictions or an offer of individual or personalized investment advice. This information and these opinions are subject to
change without notice.
Any type of investing involves risk and there are no guarantees. Sterling Capital Management LLC does not assume liability for any loss which may result
from the reliance by any person upon such information or opinions.
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