1) German real estate:
Risks and opportunities
in a shifting landscape
How does the prevalence of home offices influence the
development of new office space? What does Internet
use mean to real estate investors? Which sectors will
see the highest demand for investment?
2) There’s no place
like home
Home offices and the Internet revolution are poised to redraw the landscape of German
real estate, as Stefan Feuerriegel, partner of global law firm White & Case, explains.
T
wo socio-technological
trends—home offices and
the collateral effects of the
Internet revolution—are shaking up
the real estate market in nearly every
industrialised nation. Germany is no
exception, and analysts are watching
closely to see how these trends will
affect the country’s real estate markets.
To discover more, we surveyed
industry experts to learn how
they expect home offices and the
aftereffects of the Internet revolution
to influence the course of real estate
markets in Germany over the next
several years.
One of the most striking findings
of our survey is the extent to which
homeworking and the Internet are
expected to impact real estate
markets. While the respondents
are yet to feel the effects of these
changes directly, there is little doubt
that these forces will reshape the
real estate markets dramatically.
Home office: A social trend
with consequences
The proportion of employees who
work from home is growing, both
globally and in the European Union (EU).
But despite a domestic increase in the
availability of homeworking-friendly
technical infrastructure and workhour
flexibility, Germany has seen no
recent rise in home offices. In fact,
the number of home workers in
Germany has declined since 2008,
1  White & Case
according to the German Institute
for Economic Research.
Still, nearly five million workers in
Germany—more than 10 per cent of
the working population—practiced
their profession mainly or occasionally
at home as recently as 2012. Perhaps
this fact, coupled with the global rise
in homeworking, explains why more
than 60 per cent of respondents in our
2015 survey believe that the proportion
of home offices in Germany will rise
over the next five years.
Views are split on the extent to
which the increase will affect each
real estate sector, but a majority
predict that the residential and retail
property sectors will be affected little,
if at all, with the office property sector
feeling the effects more dramatically.
While the obvious home office hit
to the office sector has decreased
demand for traditional office space,
respondents also predict a rising
market for homeworking-inspired
innovation. 60 per cent see opportunity
in demand for shared spaces and
new floor plan designs, and one
out of four anticipates such product
innovations as office apartments in
residential buildings.
The classical office will always
have its important function not
only with regards to representation,
central facilities and meeting
rooms, but also for the social life
of a company. What the results of
the survey highlight is that there
How will the
proportion of
home offices
change over the
next five years?
63%
said it
will increase
35%
said it will remain
unchanged
2%
said it
will decline
are great opportunities for innovative
players in the real estate industry
for developing residential units
and shared office buildings in
non-classical neighborhoods.
Because retail operations require
customer proximity, few respondents
think home offices will have much
effect on retail properties. However,
the experts are predicting an increase
in space, driven by homeworking,
for logistics properties due to an
anticipated surge in demand for
double-duty delivery services to
both home and traditional offices.
Cross-sectional analysis of
survey results reveals a correlation
between a respondent’s authority
level and expectations: three-quarters
of department heads expect the
proportion of homeworkers to rise,
but only half of those at the head
of their business agree.
Source:
White & Case 2015
Real Estate Survey
There is little doubt that
homeworking and the
Internet will reshape the real
estate markets dramatically
3) Internet: A revolution for the
real estate sector?
The onslaught of online retail
is driving down interest in brick
and mortar retail properties and
boosting the appeal of logistics
properties, whose value has
soared on the exploding demand
for delivery services. Since 1995,
the logistics industry in Germany
has seen an annual average
growth rate of 3.3 per cent.
In 2013, suppliers originating
from stationary retail operations
achieved online sales worth nearly
€3.1 billion, and that number is
rising steeply.For 2015, German
e-commerce association bevh
predicted a 25 per cent boost from
2014’s sales.
But despite the surge in online
sales, survey respondents say
the Internet’s effects are not felt
everywhere. 30 per cent, for example,
say the digital revolution has had only
a slight effect on real or projected
property values in the residential,
hotel and industrial sectors.
For the retail sector, respondents
see significantly higher effects on
shopping centers than on retail parks.
Shopping center tenants are the
hardest hit by competition from
online retailers, and are facing other
Internet-derived pressures, such
as customer demands for free WiFi
access or dedicated mobile apps.
Because they double as neighborhood
social centers, retail parks are better
positioned to survive the rise of
online shopping.
Survey participants were asked
whether they expect their everyday
Internet use to change over time,
and their responses fed into a
Great opportunities
open up for innovative
players for developing
residential units and
shared office buildings
in non-classical
neighborhoods
revealing cross-sectional analysis—
those who expected the Internet’s
role in their daily lives to grow
were more likely to predict a rise
in home offices.
The future is bright, but prospects
are middling
Overall, the outlook for the German
real estate market could not be
better, the experts say. Survey
participants predict rising prices
in all segments. 90 per cent of
respondents predict that residential
properties will be in particular
demand in 2016. 80 per cent of
respondents foresee an especially
high demand for logistics properties;
the steady growth in online retailing
and stable German economy
contribute to that optimism.
Demand for German real estate
is now the highest it has been since
the investment boom of 2006 to 2008.
Historically low interest rates,
favorable financing conditions and
high liquidity are bolstering the trend.
How important
is the Internet
in your daily
activities today?
71%
highly
important
29%
moderately
important
Source:
White & Case 2015
Real Estate Survey
But experts are keeping a watchful
eye on a few trouble spots. Prices
for industrial properties are likely to
increase only marginally, the survey
says. And for office, hotel and retail
properties, only a slight majority
of respondents expects a near-term
demand any better than “not
particularly high.
”
The experts’ sentiments align
with other assessments from our
research. Rising prices and falling
yields have significantly curbed
investor interest in retail properties.
Retail assets in prime locations
and shopping centers in major
cities have become expensive
trophy properties.
In retail parks and retail warehouses,
neighborhood centers and grocery
stores, the interest is up, according
to our survey. In 2014, retail
warehouses had the highest
turnover within the retail sector,
and are now more popular with
investors than shopping centers.
A leap of faith
German real estate professionals
are savvy futurists. Even where
the data suggests that the German
market may be jumping onto the
home office and Internet-features
bandwagons a little more slowly
than markets in other advanced
European economies, they know
too well the cost of failing to
prepare for imminent social and
technological upheavals.
With long-term plans already
on the boards, market participants
are positioning themselves for a
profitable future, and betting that,
sooner or later, as the rest of the
EU goes, so must Germany.
Methodology
In summer 2015, bulwiengesa, commissioned by White & Case,
polled the opinions of 70+ real estate professionals in Germany.
The survey participants represented various sectors of the
industry, including property development, asset management,
banking/real estate financing, real estate funds, insurance,
agency/property sales, private wealth/family offices, listed
real estate companies, and construction/general contractor firms.
80 per cent of the respondents were in management positions.
The survey included qualitative and quantitative questions, and
a series of telephone interviews conducted by appointment. All
responses are anonymised and presented in aggregate.
German real estate: Risks and opportunities in a shifting landscape  2
4) Spotlight on real estate
trends in Germany
How homeworking and the Internet are impacting the real estate market.
What impact will the growing homeworking trend have on various segments of the
real estate market?*
High impact
Low impact
Unchanged
Office
42
Residential
* by percentage of respondents
Not stated
24
36
20
Retail
0%
22
39
37
28
20%
45
40%
60%
80%
5
100%
What will the likely implications of homeworking be for the various
real estate sectors?*
* by percentage of respondents
Office
Changes in rental growth
3
Changes in development
(e.g., use of floor space)
29
Product innovations
(e.g., shared spaces)
60
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Residential
Increase in demand
for housing in cities
33
Increase in demand
for housing in rural areas
10
Product innovations
(e.g., office apartments)
26
Other
2
0%
Retail
Increase in
delivery services
33
Higher variability in
shop opening times
19
Decline in expansion of
floor space
14
0%
Source: White & Case 2015 Real Estate Survey
3  White & Case
5) How will the changes wrought by the Internet impact the interests of investors in various
real estate sectors (either directly or indirectly)?*
High impact
Low impact
Medium impact
Not stated
* by percentage of respondents
Residential
30
50
20
Office
25
50
25
Hotel
35
33
32
Retail (general)
50
40
Shopping centers
48
32
12
8
Retail parks
20
50
25
5
Industrial
12
52
Logistics
61
7
28
22
0%
20%
3
40%
8
11
60%
6
80%
100%
Real estate investment outlook for 2016
Real estate prices
Demand for investment
Increase
Stay the same
s
st
ic
ria
l
gi
st
Re
Lo
In
ta
i
du
lp
nt
er
ce
Sh
op
pi
Re
ta
il
ng
(g
si
Re
ar
ks
s
l)
en
er
a
ot
el
H
de
O
nt
ffi
c
ia
e
l
Decrease
Which asset classes are likely to be in strong demand in 2016?*
Strong demand
Low demand
* by percentage of respondents
Not stated
10
9
38
60
38
10
12
53
38
50
45
10
45
42
20
63
Residential
Hotel
Retail
(general)
Shopping
centers
9
11
48
90
Office
17
Retail parks
Industrial
80
Logistics
Source: White & Case 2015 Real Estate Survey
German real estate: Risks and opportunities in a shifting landscape  4
6) Dr. Stefan Feuerriegel
Partner, Hamburg
T +49 40 35005 217
E stefan.feuerriegel@whitecase.com
Endrik Lettau
Partner, Frankfurt
T +49 69 29994 1309
E endrik.lettau@whitecase.com
Dr. Holger Wolf
Partner, Frankfurt
T +49 69 29994 1527
E holger.wolf@whitecase.com
Andreas van den Eikel
Local Partner, Berlin
T +49 30 880911 740
E andreas.vandeneikel@whitecase.com
whitecase.com
© 2016 White & Case LLP