1) Our Perspective
IS WINTER COMING FOR MUNIS? MAY 2016
Ronald Schwartz, CFA
Managing Director,
Senior Portfolio Manager,
Tax-Exempt
Tax exempt fund inflows have been strong for 33 straight weeks setting a record for YTD aggregate
inflows at $25.3bn as of May 18th.1 Municipal funds have now erased all of the 2013 outflows and
tax exempt yields are at their lowest in five decades. As a result, spread compression has been
broad based, with high yield sectors seeing greater tightening than investment grade as investors
chase the riskiest credits for any incremental yield. The strong demand is likely to continue as the
municipal market enters its peak reinvestment period over the next three months (see chart below).
The strong market technical factors have resulted in rich valuations that do not reflect fundamental
conditions that have weakened this year as a result of softening revenue growth and increasing
entitlement expenditures.
Ron is a Senior Portfolio
Manager focused on the TaxExempt Strategies. He has
worked in the investment
management industry since
1982. Ron received a B.A. in
Business Administration from
Adelphi University and is a CFA
Charterholder and a member of
the CFA Society of Orlando.
Scott Andreson
Director, Municipal Research
Scott is the Director of Municipal
Research for Seix Investment
Advisors. He has more than 17
years of investment experience.
He earned his MPA from USC
and is a current officer of the
National Federation of Municipal
Analysts.
CONTRIBUTORS
Dusty Self
Managing Director,
Senior Portfolio Manager,
Tax-Exempt
Phillip Hooks, CFA
Vice President,
Municipal Credit Research
Source: Bloomberg, JP Morgan
Revenue Growth Has Softened for Most States and Has Turned Negative for Some
Tax revenue growth in 2016 has slowed in many states and for some it has actually declined from
last year. With only one month left in fiscal year 2016, a remarkably high 22 states have a current
operating shortfall. Several states have also recently announced notable budget deficits for the
next fiscal year that begins on July 1st because of weaker than expected April income tax
revenues. Moody’s and S&P now have 11 states on negative credit outlooks. As we have
previously discussed, the decline in oil prices is one of the primary reasons for a decline in
revenues for the energy commodity states. However, even the non-energy states are experiencing
softer tax revenues as a result of poor stock performance in 2015 and a more muted economic
environment. S&P is now projecting lower or even negative GDP growth over the next few years
for several states (see Exhibit 1 on next page). The Far West and South Atlantic regions should
continue to outperform the nation due to dynamic demographics and continued economic growth
(see Exhibit 2 on next page).
1JP
Morgan Municipal Research, Lipper as of 5/18/16
2) Our Perspective
IS WINTER COMING FOR MUNIS? MAY 2016
Exhibit 1:
Projected Compound Average Annual Real GDP Growth 2016-2019
Exhibit 2:
Regional Economic Trends Play Key Role in Tax Revenue
(Standard deviation above/below U.S.)
(Employment growth from March 2015 to March 2016)
> 1 below
< 1 above
negative growth
growth of 2% to 3%
< 1 below
> 1 above
growth of 0% to 0.99%
more than 3% growth
growth of 1% to 1.99%
Source: Standard & Poor’s – Calculation using IHS/Connect projected growth rates
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Pension Expenditures Are Increasing
Lackluster stock returns are not only hurting state revenues, but are also negatively impacting U.S. state and city pensions.
Public pension systems posted their worst results since the financial crisis, recording a median increase of 0.36% for 2015, and
only 1.24% in the first quarter, falling far short of their 7%-8% targeted annual returns.2 Pension asset growth has not kept pace
with unfunded liabilities as a result of weak investment returns, inadequate contributions and the graying demographics of public
workers. State pensions had 74 percent of assets required to meet obligations to retirees in fiscal 2015, down from 77 percent in
the prior year.2 As you can see in Exhibits 3 and 4 on the next page, growing entitlement expenditures for pensions and
healthcare are increasing while capital spending is declining. The fiscal squeeze caused by flat to declining revenues and
growing expenditure pressures from the cost of retiree benefits is likely to increase due to an aging population and a huge
backlog of vital infrastructure spending.
2Bloomberg,
Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service
3) Our Perspective
IS WINTER COMING FOR MUNIS? MAY 2016
Exhibit 3:
Entitlement Benefits as a Share of Total State Expenditures
Source: Standard & Poor’s, U.S. Census Bureau
Exhibit 4:
Capital Outlay as Percent of Total State Expenditures
Source: Standard & Poor’s, U.S. Census Bureau
We are now in the seventh year of the economic recovery from the Great Recession. Despite the economic recovery, some
states and cities are still experiencing credit stress and may be running out of time to put their houses in order before another
recession strikes. Only state and local credits that have had the political fortitude and strong fiscal management to build up
budgetary reserves and enact pension reform will outperform in the next economic downturn. As we have previously stated, we
continue to believe long term rates will remain lower for longer and we remain constructive on the municipal sector over the next
several months because of its tax exempt income, strong technical factors, and compelling yields compared to other global fixed
income rates. That being said, we believe that muni fundamentals most likely peaked in 2015 and we are in the late stages of the
credit cycle with limited potential for credit spreads to tighten significantly from here. As a result, we have been upgrading our
portfolios to take advantage of the strong technical environment.
The assertions in this perspective are Seix Investment Advisors’ opinion.
BofA Merrill Lynch Municipal Master Index tracks the performance of the investment-grade U.S. tax-exempt bond market. Qualifying bonds must have at
least one year remaining term to maturity, a fixed coupon schedule, and an investment grade rating (based on average of Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch).
Investment Risks: All investments involve risk. Debt securities (bonds) offer a relatively stable level of income, although bond prices will fluctuate providing the
potential for principal gain or loss. Intermediate-term, higher-quality bonds generally offer less risk than longer-term bonds and a lower rate of return. Generally,
a portfolio’s fixed income securities will decrease in value if interest rates rise and vice versa. A portfolio’s income may be subject to certain state and local
taxes and, depending on your tax status, the federal alternative minimum tax. There is no guarantee a specific investment strategy will be successful.
This information and general market-related projections are based on information available at the time, are subject to change without notice, are for
informational purposes only, are not intended as individual or specific advice, may not represent the opinions of the entire firm, and may not be relied upon for
individual investing purposes. Information provided is general and educational in nature, provided as general guidance on the subject covered, and is not
intended to be authoritative. All information contained herein is believed to be correct, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This information may coincide or
conflict with activities of the portfolio managers. It is not intended to be, and should not be construed as investment, legal, estate planning, or tax advice. Seix
Investment Advisors does not provide legal, estate planning or tax advice. Investors are advised to consult with their investment processional about their
specific financial needs and goals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
©2016 Seix Investment Advisors LLC. Seix Investment Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the SEC and a member of the RidgeWorth Capital
Management LLC network of investment firms.