1) Client Update
December 23, 2015
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Client Update
Paris Climate Change Accord:
195 Countries Agree to Limit
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
NEW YORK
Sarah A. W. Fitts
sawfitts@debevoise.com
Stuart Hammer
shammer@debevoise.com
Steven S. Michaels
ssmichaels@debevoise.com
On December 12, 2015, 195 nations signed in Paris an international accord (the
“Paris Agreement”) to cut their greenhouse gas (“GHG”) emissions in order to
reduce the effects of global climate change. The agreement was reached at the
2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as the 21st
Conference of the Parties, or “COP21.” The Paris Agreement has been touted as a
significant development to limit global GHG emissions.
THE AGREEMENT
The Paris Agreement binds signatories to limit average global temperature
increases below 2 degrees Celsius (“2C”) above pre-industrial levels. It further
seeks to compel future efforts to limit temperature increases to 1.5 degrees
(“1.5C”) above pre-industrial levels. According to many scientists, limiting
increases to 1.5C would prevent the most severe effects of climate change, such
as more powerful hurricanes, drought and other extreme weather events.
The agreement does not specify emissions targets as one of its objectives. Instead,
the agreement aims to reach global peaking of GHG emissions as soon as
possible. It also seeks to achieve net zero emissions in the second half of the
century by balancing anthropogenic emissions with removals of GHG emissions
through carbon sinks, such as trees and vegetation, which remove carbon from
the atmosphere.
Signatory nations are required to prepare Nationally Determined Contributions
(“NDCs”), which are pledges “of ambitious efforts” to cut GHG emissions and to
report these to the United Nations Secretariat. The reporting will include
emissions levels as well as progress made toward reduction targets. The first year
that signatory nations will be required to communicate a new national plan to
cut emissions will be 2020. Plans will be updated every five years. Beginning in
2018, the United Nations will review each country’s progress.
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2) Client Update
December 23, 2015
Under the Paris Agreement, developed countries would provide at least $100
billion annually, after 2020, to assist developing countries in cutting emissions.
While the Paris Agreement strongly urges developed nations to make this
financial contribution, contributions are voluntary. The signatories to the Paris
Agreement would set a new financial contribution goal by 2025, with $100
billion in annual contributions representing the floor requirement. The financial
support would help developing nations mitigate and adapt to climate change
through technological advancement.
The agreement calls for strengthening of cooperative action on technology
development, encouraging innovation to promote economic growth and
facilitating developing countries’ access to technology.
Countries will sign the accord on April 22, 2016 at a United Nations meeting in
New York, and it will remain open for signature until April 21, 2017. The
agreement’s provisions will become effective in 2020 after at least 55 countries
representing at least 55% of total GHG emissions have signed the agreement.
ROLE OF THE UNITED STATES UNDER THE AGREEMENT
In an already submitted voluntary NDC, the United States pledged to cut carbon
emissions by 26-28% from 2005 levels by 2025. A major factor in reaching this
objective would be the Obama Administration’s Clean Power Plan (the “Clean
Power Plan”), which requires existing U.S. power plants, the nation’s largest
source of carbon pollution, to reduce carbon emissions by 32% from 2005 levels
by 2030. The Clean Power Plan recognizes the importance of fossil fuels to the
country’s energy sector while urging fossil fuel-fired power plants to operate
more cleanly and efficiently. The plan also expands the capacity for zero- and
low-emitting power sources, primarily through changes in the U.S. power
generating fleet to include less coal and more renewable energy sources, using
natural gas as a bridge fuel, and increased efficiency. The Clean Power Plan has
been challenged through litigation by several states, and its future in its current
form remains uncertain.
The United States may need to take actions in addition to the Clean Power Plan
to further reduce carbon emissions and comply with the Paris Agreement. These
additional activities would be outside the electric generation sector and would
include efficiency initiatives and reductions in fossil fuel use. Many observers
have commented that the most promising options rest in new technology.
Also being debated is whether the Paris Agreement constitutes a treaty under
international law and Article II of the U.S. Constitution. If so, the advice and
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3) Client Update
December 23, 2015
consent of two-thirds of the Senate would be required for the United States to
become a party to the agreement. The extent of the obligations imposed by the
NDCs – particularly the obligation for continued progress on previously issued
NDCs – is one major factor in determining whether the Paris Agreement falls
under Article II. Whether the U.S. Senate would approve the Paris Agreement
remains an open question, almost certainly to be determined by the 2016
election.
IMPACT
The Paris Agreement marks the first genuinely global commitment to emissions
reduction in more than 20 years. It represents a single and flexible approach by
both developed and developing countries to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
Implementation of the agreement will require significant reductions in the use
of fossil fuels in favor of renewable energy. Individual countries will have to
choose their own strategies for energy production and consumption – a choice
that will affect both domestic and global corporate behavior.
While the rest of the world, including India and China, has demonstrated a
commitment to the Paris Agreement (with China likely relying on the U.S. NDC
to draft its own), it is possible that the U.S. Senate would not ratify the Paris
Agreement. Some Senators have promised to vote against it should it come
before the Senate. However, failure to become a party to the Paris Agreement
would risk leaving the United States isolated on one of the more important
global and technological developments of this generation.
MOVING FORWARD
The United Nations Climate Summit, which is to be held in Morocco in
November 2016, will mark the first opportunity to observe how countries might
expand on the Paris Agreement’s provisions. Those following developments on
climate change will also be eager to see the first national emissions cutting plans
when they are released in 2020.
We will continue to monitor developments with respect to the Paris Agreement
and other initiatives to reduce GHG emissions in the United States.
The Paris Agreement may be found at
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09.pdf.
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Please do not hesitate to contact us with any questions.
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