Description
The table below illustrates the calendar year performance for each of the eight asset classes and the relative
ranking of commodities. Commodities had back-to-back double digit negative returns and finished in last place
for the calendar years 2014 and 2015. Since 1970, that has only happened two other times, in 1975-76 and
1997-98, as highlighted in yellow. The table also illustrates the calendar year performance for 1977 and 1999,
which are the years immediately following the back-to-back last place finishes (highlighted in green).
Asset Class History - Calendar Year Returns (%) Since 1970
Including Annual Comparative Ranking for Commodities (Ranked From 1st-8th)
Year
30 Day
T-Bill
Intermediate Long-Term
Long-Term
High Yield
Govt.
Bonds Govt. Bonds Corp. Bonds Corp.
Bonds U.S. Large Stocks U.S. Small Stocks 1975 5.80 7.83 9.20 14.64 16.42 37.20 52.82 -17.22 8 1976 5.08 12.87 16.75 18.65 21.61 23.84 57.38 -11.92 8 1977 5.12 1.41 -0.69 1.71 7.75 -7.18 25.38 10.37 2 1997 5.26 8.38 15.85 12.95 12.76 33.36 22.78 -14.07 8 1998 4.86 10.21 13.06 10.76 1.87 28.58 -7.31 -35.75 8 1999 4.68 -1.77 -8.96 -7.45 2.39 21.04 29.79 40.92 1 2014 0.02 3.00 24.71 17.28 2.45 13.69 2.92 -33.06 8 2015 0.02 1.79 -0.65 -1.02 -4.47 1.38 (3.60) -32.86 8 2016 TBD Commodities Rank ? Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Returns greater that 1-year are annualized. Index returns assume reinvestment of dividends, but do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.
Source: Ibbotson (Morningstar). See end disclosure for asset class proxy details. The outcome for 2016 and beyond still remains to be seen and past performance is never indicative of future returns. But history does show that commodities have had the ability to reverse from sustained lows and deliver significant gains.
After back-to-back last place rankings, the single year returns that followed in 1977 and 1999 for commodities were impressive. Perhaps even more interesting for investors with a longer time horizon are the average returns for the following three year periods 1977-1979 and 1999-2001, as illustrated in the table below. 3-Year Average Returns (%) After Commodities Had Two Consecutive Last Place Rankings Year 30 Day T-Bill Intermediate Long-Term Long-Term High Yield Govt. Bonds Govt.
Bonds Corp. Bonds Corp. Bonds U.S.
Large Stocks U.S. Small Stocks ‘77-79 7.56 3.00 -1.03 -0.85 2.55 5.94 30.77 25.26 2 ‘99-01 4.80 6.15 5.41 5.36 0.60 0.02 16.32 19.58 1 Avg. 6.18 4.57 2.19 2.26 1.58 2.98 23.55 22.42 2 Commodities Rank Past performance does not guarantee future results. Returns greater that 1-year are annualized.
Index returns assume reinvestment of dividends, but do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Source: Ibbotson (Morningstar).
See end disclosure for asset class proxy details. Asset class proxies (in order as above): Ibbotson SBBI U.S. Treasury Bills, Ibbotson SBBI U.S. Intermediate-Term Government Bond Index, Ibbotson SBBI U.S.
Long-Term Government Bond Index, Ibbotson SBBI Long-Term Corporate Bond Index, IA Barclays U.S. High Yield Corporate Bond Index, Ibbotson Large Company Stock Index, Ibbotson Small Company Stock Index, Commodities (S&P GSCI). Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Images shown are for illustration purposes only and should not be used as a predictive measure for the future return expectations of any investment.
The information is subject to change or revision, should not be construed as a recommendation of any specific security or investment product, and was prepared without regard for specific circumstances and objectives of any individual investor. All investments involve risks, including the potential for loss of principal. Nontraditional and alternative investments may involve additional risks specific to the asset class.
Before investing in any financial product, always read the prospectus and/or offering memorandum for product-specific risks. AD-031016 .
Bonds Govt. Bonds Corp. Bonds Corp.
Bonds U.S. Large Stocks U.S. Small Stocks 1975 5.80 7.83 9.20 14.64 16.42 37.20 52.82 -17.22 8 1976 5.08 12.87 16.75 18.65 21.61 23.84 57.38 -11.92 8 1977 5.12 1.41 -0.69 1.71 7.75 -7.18 25.38 10.37 2 1997 5.26 8.38 15.85 12.95 12.76 33.36 22.78 -14.07 8 1998 4.86 10.21 13.06 10.76 1.87 28.58 -7.31 -35.75 8 1999 4.68 -1.77 -8.96 -7.45 2.39 21.04 29.79 40.92 1 2014 0.02 3.00 24.71 17.28 2.45 13.69 2.92 -33.06 8 2015 0.02 1.79 -0.65 -1.02 -4.47 1.38 (3.60) -32.86 8 2016 TBD Commodities Rank ? Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Returns greater that 1-year are annualized. Index returns assume reinvestment of dividends, but do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.
Source: Ibbotson (Morningstar). See end disclosure for asset class proxy details. The outcome for 2016 and beyond still remains to be seen and past performance is never indicative of future returns. But history does show that commodities have had the ability to reverse from sustained lows and deliver significant gains.
After back-to-back last place rankings, the single year returns that followed in 1977 and 1999 for commodities were impressive. Perhaps even more interesting for investors with a longer time horizon are the average returns for the following three year periods 1977-1979 and 1999-2001, as illustrated in the table below. 3-Year Average Returns (%) After Commodities Had Two Consecutive Last Place Rankings Year 30 Day T-Bill Intermediate Long-Term Long-Term High Yield Govt. Bonds Govt.
Bonds Corp. Bonds Corp. Bonds U.S.
Large Stocks U.S. Small Stocks ‘77-79 7.56 3.00 -1.03 -0.85 2.55 5.94 30.77 25.26 2 ‘99-01 4.80 6.15 5.41 5.36 0.60 0.02 16.32 19.58 1 Avg. 6.18 4.57 2.19 2.26 1.58 2.98 23.55 22.42 2 Commodities Rank Past performance does not guarantee future results. Returns greater that 1-year are annualized.
Index returns assume reinvestment of dividends, but do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Source: Ibbotson (Morningstar).
See end disclosure for asset class proxy details. Asset class proxies (in order as above): Ibbotson SBBI U.S. Treasury Bills, Ibbotson SBBI U.S. Intermediate-Term Government Bond Index, Ibbotson SBBI U.S.
Long-Term Government Bond Index, Ibbotson SBBI Long-Term Corporate Bond Index, IA Barclays U.S. High Yield Corporate Bond Index, Ibbotson Large Company Stock Index, Ibbotson Small Company Stock Index, Commodities (S&P GSCI). Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Images shown are for illustration purposes only and should not be used as a predictive measure for the future return expectations of any investment.
The information is subject to change or revision, should not be construed as a recommendation of any specific security or investment product, and was prepared without regard for specific circumstances and objectives of any individual investor. All investments involve risks, including the potential for loss of principal. Nontraditional and alternative investments may involve additional risks specific to the asset class.
Before investing in any financial product, always read the prospectus and/or offering memorandum for product-specific risks. AD-031016 .
