13
20
10
20
07
20
04
20
01
20
98
19
95
19
92
19
89
19
86
19
19
83
One solution is removing duration
Clearly, fixed income yields aren’t what they used to be.
from the equation completely. Fixed
Over the last 30 years, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note
income is not the only source of yield.
yield has plummeted from a high of 13.3% in May 1984
The current low-rate environment for
to a low of 2.2% in July 2012.
bonds, combined with the fear of rising
rate spikes, has increased demand for
14%
alternative sources of yield. Traditional
U.S.
Interest Rates
(10-Year U.S. Treasury Note)
equities have a strong history of paying
12%
dividends, as do more complex asset
classes such as real estate investment
10%
trusts and energy-related master limited
partnerships. With competitive yields
8%
in the 6-9% range, these non-bond
investments may provide a nice change
6%
of pace from lower-yielding U.S.
fixed
income portfolios.
4%
Another alternative for fixed income
investors to consider is taking more of a
2%
global approach. Some other countries
offer competitive yields in corporate
0%
and government bonds (sovereign debt)
without being as tied to the U.S. economic
environment.
Adding these elements may
Performance displayed represents past performance, which is no
help to address the duration dilemma and
guarantee of future results. Source: U.S. Treasury/Bloomberg.
perhaps improve the overall diversification
of an investor’s portfolio.
But which ones will perform the best? There is no way to know. Some investors are
choosing to use an equally weighted approach with equal exposure to all of the categories. A diversified, equally
weighted strategy helps to maintain exposure to all of the categories in an unbiased way.
The table below shows how some of these asset categories performed during rising interest rate
environments since 1998, including an equally weighted combination of each.
Alternative Sources of Yield: Rising Rate Periods (Total Returns, Avg.)
Jan 1998
through
Dec 2013
# of
Days
Global
Equity
MLPs
REITs
Rising Rate Periods
878
7.1%
8.2%
17.2%
15.2%
2.9%
10.2%
Total Period
3,853
6.9%
10.2%
12.0%
11.1%
7.5%
9.1%
Sovereign Corporate
Debt
High Yield
Equal Weighted
Average
Performance displayed represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results.
Rising Rate Periods
are based on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s “Fed Funds Target Rate” from 1998 through 2013. Each representative
index listed is considered broad-based benchmark of the associated asset class: Global Equity (Dow Jones Global
World Index), MLPs (Alerian MLP Index), REITs (MSCI US REIT Index), Sovereign Debt (BarCap Investment
Grade Sovereign Index), Global Corporate Bonds (BarCap Aggregate High Yield Index).
Equal Weighted Average
is a 20% allocation to each of the five categories, rebalanced quarterly. Index performance assumes reinvestment
of dividend, but does not include fees. Indexes are not available for direct investment.
Sources: FactSet/Bloomberg
(calculated by Arrow).
Performance displayed represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. All investment
methodologies have risks, both general and product-specific, including the risk of loss of principal investments.
The information provided is intended to be general in nature and should not be construed as investment advice.
This information is subject to change at anytime, based on market volatility and other conditions, and should not
be considered as a recommendation of any specific security. Source: FactSet, calculated by Arrow.
Arrow Funds are
distributed by Archer Distributors, LLC (member FINRA).
AD-031214
.