the volatility of an investment can be measured by the amount and frequency that the price moves up and down. For
conservative investors who are seeking to reduce risk, bonds have historically been the diversifier of choice. But with interest
rates near all-time lows, some investors are seeking alternative sources of return other than bonds. When income is not an
objective, managed futures have provided an alternative source of lower-volatility diversification.
The historic returns have been
compelling, while also maintaining a low correlation to stocks and bonds.
A common comment about commodities is that they are too risky. But for investors with a longer time horizon, or for those
with a greater risk tolerance, diversifying through the use of bonds may hinder the ability to generate the desired balance of
risk/return. This is where the idea of combining other volatile, but non-correlated investments may make sense.
An example
might be commodities, which have risk-and-return statistics that seem even more volatile than stocks, but with a low historical
correlation. Many investors find it hard to comprehend adding an investment with more historical volatility in order to help to
reduce overall risk.
The graph below shows the 10-year historical risk/return averages. From the starting point of a 100% stock allocation, the
three lines show incremental blended exposure to bonds (red) , managed futures (green) and commodities (blue).
As the image
shows, a stock investor could have added bonds to reduce risk, with a somewhat expected result of also reducing return. In
retrospect, it would be obvious to most investors to see the potential benefit of managed futures because of the lower risk and
higher returns. But it may not have been intuitive to see that allocating approximately 30% to commodities would have garnered
similar risk/return characteristics to managed futures where the blue and green lines intersect.
Again, because stocks and
commodities often move up and down at different times, there can be significant diversification benefits resulting from the low
correlation.
Diversification of Stock Exposure
10-Year History (June 2004-June 2014)
16%
Managed Futures
14%
12%
Commodities
Return
10%
8%
Stocks
6%
4%
Bonds
2%
0%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Risk (Standard Deviation)
Stock/Commodity
Blend
Stock/Bond
Blend
Stock/Managed Futures
Blend
Past performance is no indication of future returns. The graph above is based on annualized index
data as proxies for stocks (S&P 500), bonds (Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index), managed futures
(A.I.
Managed Futures Volatility Index) and commodities (Longview Extended Commodity Index). The
index data and hypothetical blended portfolios assume reinvestment of dividends, but do not include
fees. Indexes are not available for direct investment.
Data sources: FactSet, calculated by Arrow.
Past performance is no indication of future returns. All investment methodologies have risks, both general and productspeciï¬c, including the risk of loss of principal. Alternative investments, such as commodities and managed futures, may have
additional risks not typically associated with stocks and bonds.
Always read the prospectus or offering memorandum before
making any investment. The information provided is intended to be general in nature, not speciï¬c to any product or investor
proï¬le, and should not be construed as investment advice. This information is subject to change at anytime, based on market
volatility and other conditions, and should not be considered as a recommendation of any speciï¬c security.
Arrow Funds are
distributed by Archer Distributors, LLC (member FINRA).
AD-091914
.